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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (119189)	11/11/2003 12:23:53 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

In short yes it will cause some instability in the region. But no it is far from portraying it as a match near a gun powder keg. You're naturally entitled to your opinion. I disagree wholeheartedly. This is what I see resulting from the present instability and the prospects for more. 1.- A potential for increased long term oil prices and increased funding of terror. The Royal family made an implicit bargain with the West, especially the US, guaranteeing reasonably priced abundant oil so long as we did not interfere with its internal affairs and protected them by selling top-notch weapons. We also bailed them out in 1991 when Saddam was at SA's doorstep. The Royals are ousted and the bargain is no longer relevant. The Kingdom's wealth will be used for all sort of nefarious purposes. Production will be restricted to raise prices. 2.- The ME becomes even more unstable. Any new regime will go after Israel in a big way, using oil wealth to fund terror and military campaigns against it. This will bring the US into direct opposition with the Muslim world. 3.- More terror in the US. Since it is likely that there will be more funds available to terrorists, the sophistication of terror operations is likely to increase. This may include the possibility of nuclear attacks on the US. If we are suffering at the same time from the devastating economic effect of higher long-term oil prices when the more sophisticated terror strikes occur, our nation will suffer a severe blow that could threaten our preeminence as a world power. All resulting from an insignificant "internal" dustup in SA.