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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (2179)	11/15/2003 1:18:11 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

I don't think the real inflation rate is 8% yet, but it assuredly is MUCH higher than the official CPI data which do NOT include housing and are aimed at screwing social security recipients whose checks are tied to that number. How long the bond vigilantes will remain hog-tied I do not know -- but there is little doubt we will see one of the biggest bond massacres ever before this is all over IMHO.

To: Real Man who wrote (2179)	11/15/2003 1:45:31 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 110194

I'd say cost inflation is now running 20-25% and commodity inflation much higher still. crbtrader.com Consumer inflation is lower because you have state subsidized and bankrupt Chinese companies producing goods well below cost. The coming bust in China will fix that though:

To: Real Man who wrote (2179)	11/15/2003 4:39:09 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

you are incorrect if you think the PPI is now 8%. and if you think the real 10yr yield is negative based on this idea. go to Walmart. the YoY inflation in more than 150,000 SKUs is... -1.5%. so a mattress portfolio had a 1.5% real return based on the rather sizable Walmart "basket of goods". at 420 bp from a 10yr and a 5.2% real yield is well over the historical average (and makes stocks look damn expensive, i might add) latest YoY finished goods PPI up a mere 0.5% ex food and NRG.