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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (119664)	11/15/2003 11:32:45 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

I think Iraqi fragmentation into what the locals seem to think are identity groups, Kurds, Sunnis and Shiites is the answer, with a reconstituted United Nations acting as federal supervisor and each country running their own place. Gonna be one hell of a civil war over those oil reserves, don't ya think? The federalists you describe should logically be the New United Nations. Figure the odds.. Annan is running so scared after the bombing of the UN headquarters that he'll be hard put to get anyone to put troops there. And the US sure as hell isn't going to put American troops under UN command.. And the UN isn't going to come crawling to the US requesting troops. What's going to happen is that there will emerge some form of strong man in Iraq, with or without elections. When you remove a complete political system, no matter how totalitarian and brutal, it will default to the "law of the jungle" as the strongest clans seek to dominate their rivals. And that's where the US forces can come into play.. by lending its "influence" to those clans that best reflect some form of progressive agenda. And if this doesn't work, then there may be a call for a return of Hashemite rule.. I wouldn't eliminate that possibility.. There were no guarantees as to what kind of government would emerge after the war. Mistakes have been made that had weakened the chances for a post-war democracy to form. Hawk