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To: goldsheet who wrote (96303)	11/16/2003 2:50:58 PM
From: loantech	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116764

Bob, <Goldbugs should be careful because they might just get what they wish. A huge derivative or currency collapse leading to failed insitutions and markets would actually be very negative for gold stocks and eventually for gold (as you described) A little "gloom and doom" is good for gold, but a lot is bad for everything. As previously stated, I think we are going into a more inflationary environment where good old fashioned demand will drive gold up to the next level.> I agree 100%. People are not equipped socially, morally or in any way to go through what our parents did in the 30's with the last financial dislocation. Good Post. Tom

To: goldsheet who wrote (96303)	11/16/2003 5:41:35 PM
From: marek_wojna	Respond to of 116764

<<Goldbugs should be careful because they might just get what they wish. A huge derivative or currency collapse leading to failed insitutions and markets would actually be very negative for gold stocks and eventually for gold (as you described) A little "gloom and doom" is good for gold, but a lot is bad for everything. As previously stated, I think we are going into a more inflationary environment where good old fashioned demand will drive gold up to the next level>> Considering the factors like aging population, Mt. Everests of debt starting from the highest level ending in personal pockets, lack of buffer zone Japan had in the form of private savings it will be impossible to have controlled "gloom and doom" scenario, but the sooner house cleaning begins starting with the SEC, drastic cuts in spending even if it means flood of chapter 11's, instead of depending on oil at huge cost in both human lives and costs of wars, making enemies and creating evergrowing number of terrorists simply by not keeping promises (Bin Laden is a prime example) in which case US is leader of the world in turning best friends into worst enemy, (the list is long), the administration should read every day the words the founders of the USA left for them. Let the other nations live their own lifestyles, then they can use the money to transform energy source, technology is already here, all what it needs is widespread demand which is in hands of the rulers. In the case of uncontrolled collapse the real gold bugs will be the only left with something others will accept as the method of payment as it was always from the early days of our civilization.

To: goldsheet who wrote (96303)	11/17/2003 9:19:31 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116764

Yeah, I know it's a very deflationary event. Nevertheless, gold may just soar. The reason is, this collapse will lead to the Fall of the dollar as the World supreme currency. Also, some CB gold has been loaned, and has to be repaid. I don't really know what will happen, but shorting stocks, combined with long gold and silver seems to be the right longer term position. You could also short bonds. In case of deflation, treasuries are supposed to soar. Yet, if they soar, the derivative collapse simply won't happen, since the credit derivative bubble feeds off the low interest rates. A paradox? I don't think so. Bonds will be dumped big time. So, if bonds move opposite to deflationary scenario, gold may just do so as well. SA or Argentina are perfect examples of what may happen. The difference, however, is that US dollar is the World reserve currency. Nobody holds the rand, yet everyone holds USD. This means, the fate of the buck will be pretty dire. The event would be deflationary for the rest of the world, but hyperinflationary for the US. So, in USD terms gold should definitely rise. However, this does not meen automatically good profits for Canadian, Australian, or SA gold miners. In fact, it could mean losses. That's what would happen if USA were just another country, like SE Asia, Argentina, or Turkey, not the G1 country whose currency is the World currency. I believe, the CBs will sell USD reserves. They would wish to hold something, as they do so. That something will very likely be gold. In that event, gold will soar enormously.