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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (2321)	11/18/2003 12:40:38 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 110194

just so long as Heinz can tell me where and when the helicopters start dropping the green stuff before everyone else knows, I'm on board....

To: ild who wrote (2321)	11/18/2003 12:41:56 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 110194

"thus the biggest actual force in the market are the people who have assets to protect - the oil Sheiks for instance. since it is probably reasonable to assume that most rich guys are well aware of how our money system works, and how fragile its underpinnings actually are" This I can confirm.....

To: ild who wrote (2321)	11/18/2003 12:54:26 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Then supply is the driver then for gold and the liklihood of existing supply coming back on to the market?? -- that is a nice post you pulled there. Demand certainly has been a poor indicator ...

To: ild who wrote (2321)	11/18/2003 1:01:35 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 110194

gold has inelastic supply and inelastic demand demand rises with rising price (excluding irrelevant jewelry) supply drops with rising price (paradoxically) PERSONALLY, I FIND THIS DUAL INELASTICITY AS UTTERLY HILARIOUS, EXTREMELY SATISFYING, THE ANALYST'S SECRET WEAPON, AND THE ULTIMATE KICK IN THE BALLS TO THE CARTEL (AND THEIR HACK JOURNALIST LACKEYS) if one allows 2-4 years to pass, then operational dynamics will indeed catch up and lead to greater supply hitting the market but the lag is huge, from regulatory and environmental obstacles, funding challenges, mgmt decisions, equipment deployment, labor hiring, road building, smelter agreements, ore transport contracts, etc falling jewelry demand is a signal of a new bull market, yet that flagging demand is used as disinformation by the cartel to fool the ignorant and unschooled taken from an article over one year ago (my first)... "25 Reasons Why Gold Will Rise: The Vicious Circle Behind the US Dollar Decline" by Jim Willie CB November 12, 2002 321gold.com 15. Paradox: High gold price leads to higher demand, and high price leads to lower supply - Typical supply & demand relationship with price absolutely does not apply - However, gold jewelry demand does conform to obey the standard demand curve - Investment demand drops during price declines, even nonexistent at lowest prices - As price rises, a worldwide fever develops and gains momentum, lifting demand - Supply was enormous at gold's lowest prices with carry trade and miner hedge sales - As price rises, hedge sale cash flow diverts capital to cover forward contracts - Legitimate operations suffer from reduction in cash reserves, inhibiting production - Ironically, gold mining firms have become buyers on the world markets !!! / jim

To: ild who wrote (2321)	11/18/2003 6:16:32 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

while commodity prices soar, they actually don't create any pricing power on the part of industries outside of the small commodities producer sector. the conclusion therefore is that margins are squeezed, and that has a deflationary effect in an economy that is entirely dependent on rapid debt growth. exactly. just what i said regarding the inflation head-fake from commodities: if you look deeper, you will see that a lack of pricing power (reflecting a lack of consumer buying power, which reflects a lack of income growth) means contracting margins. as margins contract, capacity is eventually idled. hence low Cap-U. hence more: deflation. think of deflation as a disease which can spread throughout the economic tree.