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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (2398)	11/19/2003 10:47:09 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 110194

<no leaders in US who want to carry them out., etc, etc> This discussion with you, misheldo and others (Fillmore has it right in my view, but's what's with being long junk bonds?)is getting circular. Obviously the world view of all of us similar, but where I think we are parting company is with this assumption that somehow there are guys behind the curtain (the Wizard of Oz: WOZ) who control all this? You think, "these guys are wild men and would never raise interest rates". Well, guess what, there are markets and big creditors out there that might do it for them. And this waiting for a crisis for it to all clear? What do you think we're in right now? I think this WOZ mentality most are suffering from comes from the extreme interference with market forces that has gone on so long, especially under the Greenspan regime. You start to think it's normal. I don't believe it's normal at all, it's abnormal, an economic oddity, and that's how history will view this depression when it hits. The Greenspan monetary approach will end up in the trash bin with other crackpot theories. Unfortunately the whole world will pay the price. So even realists and bears like you guys start seeing a pattern such as fight deflation with lower interest rates, just because some bozo at the fed says so. That's the whole moral hazard arrangement, gets everybody including bears, thinking this way. My point is that if and when markets start to seize up, participants start to panic. Folks start heading for those lifeboats, and don't even wait on the children and women, or the Fed or anybody else. That's what's being set up to happen IMO. And surprise, surprise, markets.