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To: The Freep who wrote (86243)11/20/2003 9:24:28 PM
From: ajtj99  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
I'm not sure about a count off the high, but the drops off our tops are usually about 8-days (A fib). Tomorrow is the 8th day off the 1448 NDX and 1063 SPX highs:

stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lg!Li10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Ll14]&pref=G

This appears to be the pattern in this bull trend.

Go against the scans, but that's not the high percentage play, IMO, when the TRIN, TRINQ, daily indicators, and bollinger bands all are suggesting the same thing.

Look at the 10-day new highs on the NDX on Les' scans going back to March. When the number is 0 of 1 and the new lows are greater than 30, you're within a day or so of the low.

When so many things point to the same thing, I believe it takes a lot more than "it could be different this time" to make a case for an opposing view.



To: The Freep who wrote (86243)11/20/2003 9:31:38 PM
From: ajtj99  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
I know many don't do indicators here, but look at these daily full stochs on the NDX going back to March.

stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[dd][pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lg!Li10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Ll14]&pref=G

There are 7 examples in a row of daily full 14,3 stochastics that have been at or near this level of oversold that have marked local lows. These have been major turns. The current levels match or exceed the readings that marked the lows in June, August, and Sept.
Those lows were 1188 NDX (?), 1204 NDX, and 1302 NDX. Those lows have all been major lows.