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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (12622)	11/23/2003 8:49:07 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95573

The following is a look at the coming week by CBS Marketwatch. cbs.marketwatch.com [snip] <<Market served feast of data to digest By Gregory Robb, CBS Marketwatch.com Last Update: 4:59 PM ET Nov. 21, 2003 WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Thanksgiving will come a day early for financial markets this year. The sheer magnitude of economic data to be served on Wednesday may cause the market to stagger into the living room for a nap. Seven indicators will be released on Wednesday - the largest one-day release of data this year. Data include weekly jobless claims; Oct. personal income and consumer spending; the Nov. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index; University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment in late November; Oct. durable goods; Oct. new home sales, and Oct. help wanted index.>> <<On Tuesday, the government will release the second peek at third quarter GDP growth. Economists expect to see a pretty significant upward revision - to a 7.7 percent growth rate, compared with the initial estimate of a 7.2 percent rate. Some economists are forecasting that growth in the third quarter will top 8.0 percent.>>

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (12622)	11/23/2003 9:20:20 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95573

Don, I believe that in order to find the best short term performers we have to look at both short term and longer term charts. MTSN may have found a bottom on Thursday according to its six month daily chart. Fundamentally it could be way higher than it should be but the chart looks great. stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lg!Li10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Ll14]&pref=G CMOS is still falling as of Friday and may not stop until its RSI approaches 30 but honestly with both 50 day moving averages and the lower Bollinger Band there to add support I'm not sure that is at all likely. stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lg!Li10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Ll14]&pref=G However and this is the most important point the SOX may still test its 50 day moving averages at or around 480. Briefing.com is still short term neutral on the market. They are not alone. Here is an excerpt concening the SOX from InvestmentHouse this weekend: investmenthouse.com There is still risk for another quick downside shakeout. Nasdaq and QQQ are still below their up trendlines, and SOX is below the 18 day MVA and at risk of a quick trip to the 50 day MVA. That shakeout early in the week would set the market up for a nice seasonal rally into Thanksgiving. The market is at an inflection point with all of the large cap indexes trading around the 50 day MVA and the small, mid-caps and SOX just below the 18 day MVA. Every index is in pretty decent shape though Nasdaq is at some risk, trading below its up trendline and struggling to hold the 50 day MVA after undercutting it three times in the week. It has shown many times on this run that betting against it too much is risky. Thus with the seasonal factors here and an uptrend that is still in place, we are looking for a move higher into Thanksgiving, but first a potential test lower by SOX and the smaller cap indexes to test their 50 day MVA as well. That would provide the shakeout to give the market direction, and now that expiration is history the market will actually be able to make a more sustained move. There was something of a shakeout Friday, however, as SOX and the largest cap indexes undercut their ranges for the week before rebounding. I don't know how much higher the market will run but I do think it may be possible to make 10 to 20% off of stocks like MTSN or CMOS short term once the put to call ratio closes over 1.0 again. Thanks for the new tables! RtS