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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (2568)	11/24/2003 6:06:13 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

>>then I guess you will be surprised at higher LT rates / jw<< sure -- if it happens -- it's been predicted for a long time. There's no shortage of bets aligned that way right now, too.

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (2568)	11/24/2003 8:07:08 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

then I guess you will be surprised at higher LT rates / jw In the long haul - hell no In the short haul yes In the long and short haul on short term rates, my position is clear. Greenspan is reckless and is not raising. They hit eurodollars this AM (note to those interested .... Eurodollars and TNX both follow the market not gold, for now anyway) and I got some cheap spreads on Jan eurodollars. I laid 3:1 odds that there is no rate hike by Jan expiry which is 53 days from now. Every day that ticks by without a hike is a day in my favor. These things skyrocket 50% in Dec when the FED reiterates its policy that the Eurodollar futures just do not seem to get. I get hurt VERY badly if there is a hike by Jan. If I win this bet I will roll it over to march, but in a slightly different fashion. I will roll to allow a 1/4 hike (but I do not think that is coming either). Just trying to stay slightly ahead of the curve here. By trying to stay slightly ahead of the rat hike curve, my belief is that places me well ahead of the curve. I have NO leeway for Jan but there is little time left (53 days - odds of rate hike with fed policy wher it is at is NIL imo) June Eurodollar calls that I bought for 6 were worth 19 on Friday. I did not realize it damn it. Only worth 16 today, but they have ZERO leeway for a hike. I am taking those off tomorrow and putting the money into spreads that will allow 1/4 hike. M