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Technology Stocks : Helix Technology, a cold play on semiconductor equipment -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mopgcw who wrote (1111)	12/1/2003 6:59:58 PM
From: mopgcw	Respond to of 1227

GS US SEMI EQUIPMENT WEEKLY: IMPLICATIONS OF A RATIONAL CAPITAL SPENDING CYCLE Summary: (1) If the semi equipment industry is in the middle of a "more rational" capital spending cycle, Street peak margin targets are likely too optimistic. The Street is assuming that the equipment companies can achieve historical levels of incremental operating profit in this cycle and we think that assumption is a stretch, (2) We provide an analysis that details the drop-through projections. We believe this analysis implies that using peak earnings targets to buy and sell the stocks is a bad idea. We believe normalized free cash flow is a better metric. This metric leads us to remain bullish on the stocks with a 3-month time horizon as we believe there is about 3-months of cyclical upside left in the stocks before the industry achieves normalized cash flow, (3) The Goldman Sachs Semi and Semi Equipment teams are hosting a bus trip in Boston this Wednesday, Dec. 3rd. Please contact us if you are interested in attending, and (4) News, Events and Price Performance.