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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (27420)11/25/2003 6:13:29 AM
From: quehubo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 206176
 
I have been one to rely mostly on comparison of 2002 to 2003, instead of the 5 year averages. So the recently released months data of July and August complete a very good explanation. I spent most of my thoughts on fuel switching, and less on relative total generation levels.

So Andy above all the other street has come up with a very large factor whose data is very hard to argue with.

The end conclusion is that the Summer is a much bigger factor with injections that I expected.

Also that the story this Winter is even more likely to be bullish that I expected. We just need to avoid one of those 1 year in 100 warm Winters for the 3rd time in 10 years.



To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (27420)11/25/2003 6:31:48 AM
From: quehubo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 206176
 
Another consideration that I just gave a quick look at was, how did 2002 and 2003 compare to normal CDD? Especially in the regions so dependent on NG generation.

It seems the Southern and SE States were close to normal in 2003 but much cooler than 2002.

So the point is Summer weather is important.

Even more important the heavy demand destruction Yo Y is an illusion.

cpc.ncep.noaa.gov


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