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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (12638)	11/25/2003 8:02:25 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95587

Amateur Investor Mid Week Market Analysis amateur-investors.com Meanwhile the Semiconductor Index (SOX) has been able to hold support above its 10 Weekly EMA (blue line). If the SOX can break solidly above its high made a few weeks ago near 540 it appears the next major upside resistance level would be in the 640-650 range which coincides with its longer term 38.2% Retracement Level (calculated from the early 2000 high to the October 2002 low) and the high made in 2002 (point D). Meanwhile if the SOX stalls out near the 540 level there are two areas of support to the downside to watch. The first area would be at its 10 Weekly EMA near 480 while the second area would be at its 20 Weekly EMA near 450.

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (12638)	11/27/2003 1:01:04 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95587

From Briefing.com: General Commentary Wednesday's market action mirrored Tuesday's in that the internals and general sentiment were similar. Tech shares closed on average 0.8% higher vs. 0.7% on Tuesday, advancers led decliners by 1.4:1 vs. 1.3:1, and advancers rose 2.9% in both sessions while decliners fell 2.0% vs. 2.1% on Tuesday. Like the previous session, investors shrugged off the day's economic data as fully discounted in stock prices. The above-consensus Durable Goods New Orders of 3.3% (consensus at 0.7%) and drop in Unemployment Claims to 351K (consensus at 360K) did not compel investors to bid up shares. There is value to be found within technology. An example is Tech Data (TECD 36.13 +3.60) which beat consensus and raised guidance. The company has a highly leveraged operating model that if managed well can substantially reward shareholders. Still, it is important to keep in mind that to a great degree economic/growth expectations are built into tech stock prices. As a result, the weeks ahead are more a traders' market than an investors' market. Some short-term ideas are listed below. Have a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday.--Ping Yu, Briefing.com Names that have dropped below their lower volatility bands and may snap back: Company (Ticker) Close Change % Change Addvantage Tech (AEY) 4.25 -0.70 -14.1% American Power Conversion (APCC) 22.06 -0.09 -0.4% ASAT Holdings (ASTT) 3.28 +0.07 +2.2% BCE (BCE) 22.29 -0.20 -0.9% ECtel (ECTX) 5.22 -0.08 -1.5% Merisel (MSEL) 6.08 -0.12 -2.0% QAD (QADI) 12.21 -1.09 -8.2% Rockford Group (ROFO) 5.85 -0.12 -2.0% Sigmatron Intl (SGMA) 24.66 -2.40 -8.8% Wegener (WGNR) 2.19 -0.36 -14.1% Extended Systems (XTND) 4.57 +0.02 +0.4% Names that have risen above their upper volatility bands and may consolidate: Company (Ticker) Close Change % Change Commonwealth Telephone (CTCO) 37.72 +0.12 +0.3% Comtech Telecom (CMTL) 33.10 +1.27 +4.0% Equinix (EQIX) 26.05 +0.57 +2.2% NaviSite (NAVI) 6.92 -0.08 -1.1% NovAtel (NGPS) 10.13 +0.67 +7.1% Net2Phone (NTOP) 5.92 +1.46 +32.7% ParthusCeva (PCVA) 8.75 +1.18 +15.6% Sirenza Microdevices (SMDI) 5.70 +0.72 +14.5% Tessco Technologies (TESS) 14.29 +0.79 +5.9% Vodavi Technology (VTEK) 7.41 +2.06 +38.5% 5:20PM Wednesday After Hours prices levels vs. 4 pm ET: Traders have headed home early with tomorrow's Thanksgiving feast on their minds, and tonight's extended session reflects the dearth of activity. Presently, the after hours trade is little changed - with the S&P futures at 1057 (1 point below fair value) and the Nasdaq 100 futures at 1422 (1 point above fair value). There have been no earnings reports, nor have there been any revisions to guidance. Thus far, this week has held true to the historical pattern of higher trading during the week of Thanksgiving. As it stands now, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 are all up 1.6%, 3.1%, and 2.2%, respectively. We expect Friday's regular session, which will be a half-day (closing at 13 ET), to mimic today's action in that the trade should be fairly directionless. Once again, there are no earnings reports scheduled, nor are there any economic reports on the calendar. Readers will still want to check in with Briefing.com, though, as we will still be providing full coverage of the markets. Be sure to visit Live In-Play for insight into any breaking stories (now available on our Platinum Product), and our Stock Market Update and Daily Sector Wrap pages for in-depth analysis of market/sector trends (both available on our Gold Product). Have a Safe and Happy Thanksgiving, and enjoy your day off from trading tomorrow! -- Heather Smith, Briefing.com 12:02PM RMBS: Amtech comments on outlook 25.13 -0.03: American Technology Research believes that legal developments in the next 30-45 days will likely prove pivotal for Rambus (RMBS) shares. Firm believes that the FTC will render some final decision by January and suggests that investors focus on whether Rambus can collect future royalties on D.D.R. (and DDR2). Amtech believes that Infineon's recent motion to push out the Virginia retrial (pending a final FTC ratification) is a mockery of the legal system. Firm thinks that investors should view the ~$25 level in the stock as a consolidation level, with the next leg up likely to consolidate the stock around $35. Risks are inherent, but firm reiterates its Buy rating. 11:12AM Sierra Wireless aggressive follow through (SWIR) 16.97 -1.44: -- Technical -- Stock hammered yesterday after a downgrade (see Briefing.com archive), has extended the slump today with it currently hovering near support in the 16.90/16.85 area (congestion). If a breach of this zone is seen, the next floor of interest is at it 50 day simple mov avg at 16.70 (session low 16.91). 9:23AM XLNX target raised to $45 at Wedbush 36.79: Wedbush Morgan reiterates their Buy rating on Xilinx (XLNX), raises their Q3 est a penny above consensus, and raises their target to $45 from $35; firm believes XLNX will hit the high end of its 2-6% QoQ rev growth guidance when it reports on Dec 2, and says the co's share of design wins should enable it to lead the upturn in CY04. LSI Logic (LSI) 9.35 -0.04 : Co finalized a purchase-and-foundry-services agreement with Rohm for LSI Logic's semiconductor manufacturing facility. The asset purchase is approx. $24 mln. RF Micro Device (RFMD) 11.48 +0.07 : CE Unterberg Towbin upgraded LT Mkt Perforn to LT BUY. Target $15. Believes handset channel inventories in US and China are at or below normal levels and that co's margins will continue to expand well into CY04. MEMC Elec (WFR) 10.61 +0.25 : UBS upgraded Neutral to BUY. Cites potential return to $14 target and believes global wafer demand has started to accelerate as consequence of higher demand for ICs. finance.yahoo.com