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To: profile_14 who wrote (27458)	11/26/2003 9:23:36 AM
From: Frank	Respond to of 206179

profile--can't buy your coin flip analogy. Coin flips are called independent events in probability theory. Weather events are not independent events but rather are continuing events. In other words, the coin does not remember the previous action but the weather does.---Good luck --Frank

To: profile_14 who wrote (27458)	11/26/2003 9:33:30 AM
From: Archie Meeties	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206179

Does weather trend or is it just a random walk? If it is totally random, then each winter is a discreet event and your analogy with the coin toss is valid. If it trends, then one season is related to another and the analogy to a coin toss is invalid.

To: profile_14 who wrote (27458)	11/27/2003 9:29:17 AM
From: quehubo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206179

Statistically speaking, if I look at a normal distribution for Winter season HDD for the last 10 to 30 Winter seasons, one standard deviation from the mean population weighted HDD season totals ~240 HDD. Estimating the impact on storage drawdowns with 240 less HDD for the season leaves us at roughly 1,000 bcf in storage. Since it is an 84.13% probability that we will have weather cooler than 1 SD warmer for the season and even with a 1 SD warmer Winter we still drawdown storage to a low level, I am comfortable staying fully invested and using margin on occasion. BTW my accuweather local 15 day forecast improved significantly this morning.