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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jrhana who wrote (33971)	11/29/2003 11:20:10 AM
From: jrhana	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

To me as usual Richard Russell makes the most sense (part I): November 29, 2003 -- I've always hated steel animal traps. They're a cruel abomination. Some animals, coyotes, wolves, have actually chewed their own legs off to escape from the steel jaws. But these animals did escape, and they lived. In my opinion, the monetary system of the world is now caught in the cruel steel trap of the central banking system. Before it's all over, the world may have to cut itself free from the current system and return to the sanity of gold. It will happen, and the world will survive. The trap, the system of producing money from "thin air," will not survive. It's immoral, it's a thief that robs us of the fruits of our labor, it's an abomination. Talking about abominations, money is created under the central reserve system by borrowing. When you, as a consumer, borrow from your bank, your bank lends you the money and thus credit is created and the nation's money supply increases. As the same time, your loan has created a debt. In 1987, consumer debt was just 70% of consumers' total after-tax income. In 1995 it rose to 80%. Today, consumer debt is at an all-time high -- for the first time in history, consumer debt is greater than US consumers' total after-tax income. Consumer buying constitutes 70% of the US Gross Domestic Product. This is the reason the Fed is so frantic to keep consumers buying. What's happened is that the Fed has pushed the US economy into a corner or let's call it a trap. With fantastic mountains of debt outstanding in every area of this nation, this nation cannot take deflation. Deflation implies a contraction of the money supply, and that's what the Fed dreads -- consumers cutting back on their spending with an accompanying contraction of the nation's money supply. To entice consumers to spend, the Fed has flooded the banking system with liquidity while at the same time pushing short rates down to 45-year lows. Every effort has been made to entice and encourage US consumers to keep spending and borrowing, borrowing and spending. Of course, I've only been talking about consumers. At the same time, the US government has been borrowing big-time. Defense spending has surged to an all-time high, and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have added to the spending. All in all, the actual addition to the national debt for the current fiscal year could be as high as $1 trillion. Then there are the unfunded liabilities of the US, the chiefs of which are Medicare and Social Security. According to an article in the November 24 issue of Fortune magazine ("The 44 Trillion Abyss"), US unfunded liabilities (money that we will owe) are just that -- an unbelievable $44 trillion. Let me put is this way -- in view of the negative trade balance and the negative budget balance, the Fed will need to continue its policy of creating billions in fiat money while covering the planet earth with paper dollars. This situation is being largely ignored by the stock market -- although I believe the bond market is beginning to smell the coming trouble. What trouble? The trouble is that no currency can hold up against the kind of picture that I have presented. The more the production of any item, the greater the pressure on its price, and I don't care whether you're talking about TV sets or cell phones or soybeans or autos -- or dollars.>

To: jrhana who wrote (33971)	11/29/2003 1:54:17 PM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Why short it (now)? Good question I suppose. BGO has went from about 25 cents to a present 4.20. I started at 36 cents. If I would have waited until I recognized the channel I would not have got in until maybe after a dollar. Figure the % difference in gains. In one case you have a 16 bagger, the other a 4 bagger. That is how I look at it. I don't know for sure but I think the initial stages of a market dump will occur rapidly. There should be one decent rebound. So you would two chances to get in at a good position, short. I am also fairly certain a lot of folks will not get in until way down the road. Always the case. I like to try and maximize, don't always get it that is for sure. But it is good game trying. And it means a lot to the bottom line. I also think the present situation is what I call indeterminate. The bulls can make a case for another shot up, and the bears can make a case that we are at a top. Hopefully we get more data during the next few weeks that will shed further light on the situation.

To: jrhana who wrote (33971)	11/29/2003 4:10:12 PM
From: illyia	Respond to of 36161

Seek the advice of e-wave e-xperts... The great advantage of having been borne without a box is one does not have to get out of one... the great disadvantage is finding investor's contrary-to-the-facts behavior completely insane and inscrutable - but, then they have bought into the dogma... This leaves me between being a bear in reality and a bull by the TA - the charts. That chart predicts a pullback for a four or else a five wave down series. That is what it does. Is it correct? Who knows? Looks like it to me... But WTFDIK! E-wave is meant to disallow certain alternatives, but, unfortunately the best wavers are out of the country or moving. I expect Shack to be back shortly - as he has been "moving" for over a week! AA (Alan's Alias) is in London doing some such and checks in irregularly. Sometimes I think everyone should pitch in $20 bucks and make the 7K Prechter demands for inside e-wave... but then it would not help. It is an art and a disciplin.... Prechter guesses, too. And, in that chart, I am only guessing at it... Truly, illyia