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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bilow who wrote (120769)12/1/2003 12:16:54 AM
From: h0db  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 281500
 
Carl, I think that most public sources on the Strait balance are out of date, primarily because of the pace of Chinese modernization. Since 2001, Congress has mandated that DoD provide an annual report on the Chinese military, which seems to in turn feed most academic studies. Below is snipped from the most recent such report (July 28, 2003):

defenselink.mil

pp-48-49:

Air Forces. The Taiwan Air Force (TAF) dominated the airspace over the Taiwan Strait for many years. Today, Taiwan maintains a qualitative edge over and possesses twice as many 4thgeneration fighters as China. The PLAAF does not appear focused on large-force employment or sustaining high sortie rates for extended periods of operations. Pilot proficiency is improving, but China s best pilots lag behind their Taiwan counterparts in terms of capabilities. However, China s force modernization, weaponry, pilot training, tactics, and command and control are gradually beginning to erode Taiwan s qualitative edge. The number of Chinese 4th generation fighters eventually will surpass those of Taiwan. China also is seeking to improve situational awareness.

Beijing's SRBM force could be used to soften Taiwan s air defenses and disrupt airbase operations, supporting any air campaign designed to cripple the TAF and damage or destroy Taiwan military facilities. Over the next several years, given current trends, China likely will be able to cause significant damage to all of Taiwan s airfields and quickly degrade Taiwan's ground based air defenses and associated command and control through a combination of SRBMs, LACMs, anti-radiation weapons, SOF, and other assets, unless Taiwan undertakes the defensive upgrades needed and to which it is committed.


I know you realize that the air balance/battle is important, but only a part of what China would have to consider; Moving tens of thousands of troops across the Strait (110nm at it's narrowest point) probably would make D-Day look easy, especially with the difficulty of weather (Typhoon in the summer/fall, brutal winter Nor'easters).