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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (42299)	12/1/2003 3:12:27 PM
From: Canuck Dave	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Ok Jay, you show us where we can make a decent living producing something "real", and we would do it. In a flash. In a Mexican minute. I used to do renewable contract science, and after 1988, one of the things which happened was they could get Russian emigres to do the work a lot cheaper. Better, too, LOL. I was way ahead of the times. Lacking the security of a full time position, my contracts began to get crummier and crummier, There were no benefits, sick days, dental plans or anything associated with the job, and one day I woke up to the fact that when I got old, I would have buttkis. No pension, nada. THAT, for trying to put something back into the system rather than ripping off as much as I could as fast as I could. I think I became a Nazi on that day. On the other side of the coin, we have a mixer made in the US in 1942. It was a wedding present from my mother-in-law's wedding. The thing is still as good as new. Smooth as silk. There was a time when America made fabulous stuff. I would have been proud to have worked for such a company. My kids tell me I should assuage my conscience by noting that the stock market success allows others to make a living. That's really comforting, and I do confess I like the expensive ports. Speaking of supporting people, the guy building my deck showed me an offer sheet he got from a Florida based options trading company guaranteeing to triple his money within a few weeks. He was kind of excited and asked me if I thought it was a good investment. I have to fight my excitement every time I am tempted to go over to the "dark side". "Sell me your soul, but do you really want to unload it so cheaply?" CD

To: TobagoJack who wrote (42299)	12/1/2003 4:18:55 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Why PTF - used to be NCN, high payout ,volitile - I want to buy volitility if things go up. I've traded NCN before, and being dual listed and liquid, can get in & out easily. Winter may be colder - word that Joe Bastardi expects a colder winter. Also, some discussio non Boom Boom thread that there was not as much demand destruction as geenrally thought - this changed my prespective. I may be early on the gas.... Also sold NXY because it has not done anything in past week. ************** Price = Money supply / total goods So, if we have increasing production of manufactured goods -silicon chips, computers, cars, clothing, etc. - There needs to be an equivalent increase on money supply, or prices fall. Falling prices (like electronics) make it tough to carry any inventory...things become non-optimum. I don't have too much of a problem with fiat money when we have near fiat manufacturing. Still think fiat money ends badly, because of both temptation to print more and miscalculation of both goods and money supply. Tieing to gold would only slow things down - over $500, many more deposits become profitable. Hit $1000, and we can dig up half of Northern Nevada,lots of New Guinea, re-start California Mother Lode Mines, drill holes in Canada, search Austrailia, Phillipines, Russia, all the old Roman and Spanish diggings around the Mediterranian, sluice half of Brazil, not to mentnon South Africa digging to the core of the Earth....

To: TobagoJack who wrote (42299)	12/1/2003 8:45:31 PM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Just curious, Jay. What's your current thinking on the timing of the onset of your predicted imminent US economic bust?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (42299)	12/2/2003 3:22:16 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay I also need your objective observatory skills, if you please: Kirchner Argentinean president has a rate of approval of 90%!! This is an anomaly. Creditors are demanding <<that Argentina repay about $18bn of past due interest (PDI) on the defaulted debt.>> <<Specifically, ACAG says the government should pay creditors 5 per cent of PDI upfront, and cover the remainder with a 14-year bond with a 7.25 per cent coupon. So far, Argentina has said it will not pay any PDI.>> <<institutional investors holding $7bn (€5.9bn, £4.1bn) in defaulted Argentine bonds - will demand that Argentina writes off just 35 per cent of the nominal value of more than $80bn currently in default. Argentina has said it must write off 75 per cent to make the restructuring sustainable.>> But think again -politicians being who they are- would those 90% approval rate would not prompt some other countries to defualt too?