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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (8247)	12/5/2003 2:17:32 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 25522

Heard on the Beat: Foundry prices up; lead times extend By C.V. Dee Silicon Strategies 12/05/2003, 12:50 PM ET If you haven't reserved your foundry capacity by now, then you may be in trouble. Not just trouble, but big trouble, according to sources at the Fabless Semiconductor Association (FSA) awards dinner on Thursday (December 5, 2003) night. Not long ago, supply exceeded demand in the silicon foundry business. Now, the market has taken an abrupt about-face, as foundry prices have suddenly shot up for select processes and lead times are extending, according to sources at the FSA event. Demand is huge and foundries cannot keep up with orders. Leading foundries are reportedly raising--or in the process of increasing--select wafer prices by 10-to-20 percent, according to sources at the FSA event. Lead times for 130-nm processes "are way out there," according to one executive from a foundry supplier. And lead times for mature 180-nm processes are ranging from "16 to 20 weeks," the source said. The source claimed that customers are literally camping out at the company's parking lot and waiting for more wafers. "It's hot right now, but customers are killing me," the source added.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (8247)	12/5/2003 2:50:29 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Hi Brian, Especially since no one would have ever dreamed that China would add to the demand for chips in the global market. Japan was being written off as a virtual continuous state of deflation and no reinvestment. The current laggard is now the Euro - and they're getting wonderful purchasing power with their currency strength-making them a laggard but delayed investment area for the multinational/locals (Phillips Siemen not really sure). I still think the delayed recovery will take longer due to the size of the blowoff top.What I didn't anticipate and I think it will absorb the huge overcapacity(of even the low tech fabs)is the China purchasing entering the global market. It all adds up to strong pricing (witness the supply shortages on digital cameras).Next we'll hear about cellphone memory shortage and flash memory for digital camera's.Shortages mean no inventory - Q1 will be replentishing shortages and the weak periods may not be so impactful this summer.In between most chip makers with nice pricing will be upgrading or expanding this summer for the next Christmas season. Imploding prices coupled with many new gadgets all converging on the "WIRELESS" theme,will create ongoing uniot chip expansion. 04 will be a great yearfor the return of demand for Equipment makers.JMHO Bob This last quarters gain will usher in the last of the impairment writeoffs - this is just good tax planning.Fasb 101 will get rode hard this last Q4. Key to watch will be backlog growth with lagging billings till Q1 closes and April announcements "Blow Away" the cautious CEO's sandbagging. JMHO Bob