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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (87329)	12/6/2003 7:48:50 PM
From: pompsander	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Zeev, thanks very much for your analysis. It is, as always, useful. I lurk your thread on IHUB, but have been too busy with work and other issues to join and participate. Your recent take on a likely NAZ drop of 150 points or so got me out of a few positions right around the magic 2000. I guess from Mr. Market's recent actions, I was not alone.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (87329)	12/6/2003 9:02:26 PM
From: rrufff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Zeev - excellent analysis and I appreciate it. The only part I'd disagree with would be in the losing end. I haven't studied the pleadings but know enough about the system to have successfully shorted companies that rely on litigation for their high-flying existence. That's a vague unsupported statement I know and I'm too early in my analysis to be specific. So - let's say the litigation is either unsuccessful or, more likely with cya tendencies and moola to lawyers controlling the action, let's say there is a victory but one which factors away a lot of damages. There are many ways judges do this. For example, the judge could rely on facts that would reduce profits for a myriad of reasons and, consequently, the value of the proprietary technology. I look at it as a lottery ticket. The problem is that the lottery director can be controlled by the system, which is very much less than perfect and subject to human failings, not neatly analyzed with a technicians eye. So - bottom line - if they get a decision which makes everyone a little happy and which makes cya judges very smug and royal, then how do the fundamentals look? Can Rambus compete in a market that gradually becomes more and more commoditized? And will it justify a rich value?