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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (42610)	12/6/2003 7:27:18 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

Jay, I would remove Taiwan out of your equation. There's always need to temper the news with something that touches that part of the animal brain that triggers FEAR. SARS fitted the bill quite nicely. Then it was North Korea. Now Taiwan. I'm amazed how BBR by-passed the news that Singapore will become the Switzerland of Asia now that governments are going after the taxes of its citizens stashed in Cayman Island, Bermuda etc etc.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (42610)	12/6/2003 7:46:01 PM
From: menanna	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Jay: I have been reading you posts and website with some regularity, not just because you adore my country (although this helps <g>) but because your international economic and political analysis are of the highest quality and the way you are applying them to investment decisions is simply brilliant. Your entire post and this point in particular really chilled me: <The wood and fuel for a ferocious USD couter-trend rally of material proportions may be already piled high and soaked plenty, and the spark may be evident, and there must be plenty of shorts to be incinerated by the fantasy of multiple nuclear fires.> How likely (% wise) do you think this horrific possibility may come to pass? Thanks – Anna P.S.: That villa in Tuscany you sent me a picture of? Is a dream of mine.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (42610)	12/9/2003 6:41:30 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Jay, <<The Taiwan-China issue ... The wood and fuel for a ferocious USD couter-trend rally of material proportions may be already piled high and soaked plenty, and the spark may be evident, and there must be plenty of shorts to be incinerated by the fantasy of multiple nuclear fires.>> ... I want to emphasize that I am only deeply worried about a sharp/sustained rally of the USD IF AND ONLY IF the Taiwan situation develops in a way that see tension sharply rise, and that can happen easily if Bush had said something like 'the future of Taiwan should be determined by the Taiwanese' as opposed to 'We oppose any unilateral decision to change, by either China or Taiwan, to change the status quo, and the comments and actions made by the leader of Taiwan indicate that he may be willing to make decisions unilaterally to change the status quo -- which we oppose.' Now we get to watch what will happen next on the Taiwan drama. Short of Taiwan, there are preciously few triggers (i.e. ECB says 'we will also print, with the aim to keep USD high'?) for any sustainable USD rally, however sharp, because there are too many triggers for further sharp losses in the USD, and there are no apparent breaks to the USD slide. Chugs, Jay