Hello Gumnam, <<What do you think?>>
I think:
(a) If I were a politician, I would be concerned about my charge, and about keeping my charge;
(b) If I were Bush, I would be concerned about the economy, and about defense against WMD on a US city, and all other issues, worries, and concerns would be slotted into this framework and prioritize in order of likelihood. These other issues might be energy, financial stability, nuclear proliferation, N.Korea due to nuclear proliferation etc. I would not really give much thought to Taiwan;
(c) If I were Wen, I would be concerned about the economy, and about the economy again, and all other issues, worries, and concerns would be slotted into this framework and prioritize in order of likelihood. These other issues might be financial stability, energy, and again, financial stability, and energy. I would not really give much thought to N.Korea, except how its collapse might be a road bump to the economy;
(d) If I were Chen Shui-bian, there is little I can do about the economy, because the factories are in China mainland, and the markets are in the US. There is not much around the world that would concern me, because hardly anyone has any interest to talk to me. So, how do I keep my job?
<<It is very interesting that Bush has been so nice to the Chinese Govt regarding Taiwan>> … I believe because the true interest of the US is to see that China is engaged with the N.Korean issue, so that there is less of a chance that the N.Korean technology can be used by the desert tribes living on top of the oil.
I believe, compared to the above issues, <<imports of American goods … stabilizing the US treasury markets>> all are lesser issues. All else are simply political favors to be traded for other political favors until well beyond <<Nov 2004>>.
I believe the US and China will work to uphold the USD-standard until it is no longer convenient. I think folks are mistaken in thinking that China will dump USD in retaliation for anything, because China is in fact in the USD-space and like separation operations for Siamese twins, when it is done, one or both of the twins may not live through the separation process. I think people are also mistaken in thinking that central banks exist to make profit, and thus China Inc would be worried about the worth of their USD hoard. China Inc will spend the USD on things they need, but using it to make profit is not one of the objectives of central banking charter.
<<what gives Taiwan the balls to go ahead with the referendum after this statement by Bush. Is the game deeper?>>
… I figure, it is now or tomorrow, or day after tomorrow, or the day after that day … and each day the referendum is delayed, the impossibility of Taiwan’s situation increases, as it hemorrhages all that is worthwhile and of value, as it reverts back, bit by bitter bit, into its traditional role, a mere island appendage of a strong continental economy.
According to the media, there are of course a thousand other issues, including the trumped up issues, but I figure national leaders are not idiots as we sometimes believe them to be, or at least national leaders are not absolute morons, as we often suspect, and so they of all people would know what the truly important issues are ... and they are most assuredly not women's underwear, colour television, or any of the matters the let's-boycott-Walmart crowd was trying to alert us to.
By the same figuring, the important issues will not likely be found in Walmart, and are unlikely to be pinpointed by folks living a fantasy of empires.
The important matters today, by my figuring, are (a) the USD standard, (b) energy security, and the antimatters are (a) WMD technology, and (b) hijacked foreign policies and captured religions.
Think about it, there will be nothing that will focus the mind as alertly as when a destitute and starving N.Korean scientist is found inside his fishing trawler-launched mini-submarine on way to some energy-rich desert region of our fine planet.
So, I doubt Bush wants to deal with Taiwan, and Wen wants to fuss over bras. Whatever they do about the issues raised by Ms Corrigan and Mr Long, it is likely to be just for show and nothing more.
Should Bush lose the 2004 election and Wen retires, the truly important issues to China and the US will likely still be the same important issues.
Chugs, Jay |
