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To: SwampDogg who wrote (25408)	12/11/2003 10:40:23 PM
From: Elizabeth Andrews	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 39344

Your sentence, "The Kondratieff sequence would be out of order if this boom occurs though", is going to require some analysis and thought. I’ve read a bit about this but I’ve never considered the demographic or political underpinnings of the theory. It may be like the global warming thing that appears to be without merit to me as the field of study is too short or is biased in some meaningful way that is not apparent in the short run. I don’t know other than the earth is getting colder, as evidence proves, whilst the Greenies are saying otherwise. I’m just trying to point out that there’s a chance that a global industrial boom may be at hand that creates the real blue collar stuff that transfers money to a large number of people, which is something that hasn’t happened for a long time. Wages may rise. The monetary policy of the biggest economy wants that to happen, or I may be misreading things. In the Kondratieff model, does the politics of the economies studied remain static? What investment data are included? How would the model account for communist governments acting like aggressive capitalistic things? Who is voting for getting richer in China? What about governments that just want its people to be richer? That can’t be bad can it? But can that paradigm shift distort the Kondratieff sequence, especially since the Chinese economy is so large and getting larger rapidly? Or, are you saying that the Fibonacci series is fatalistic and there’s a control beyond the control of man and his monetary policies? Is it possible for man to create a model that is beyond the fear and greed scenarios that applies to the reality of man?