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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (3312)	12/12/2003 1:34:53 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I have been looking at 5 year charts of nat gas today -- spot prices -- not futures -- I would encourage folks that are mega-bullish on gassers to study these charts. I think there is still reason for caution here, though I'll admit some of the charts of the stocks look good technically ...

To: russwinter who wrote (3312)	12/12/2003 2:45:17 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

I have no interest in trading rate instruments, it's a totally controlled and manipulated market. Eurodollars are probably the least manipulated market there is. Hundreds of thousands of futures trade daily, in the US, Europe, Japan and everywhere else. Heavy volume of international makeup makes it harder to manipulate IMO. The premice is crystal clear. Greenspan says he is not raising rates, has shown historocally he does not raise rates, has proven that his only solution to every problem is throwing money at it. He is TELLING THE WHOLE FN WORLD rates are going to be held low, yet everyone wants to bet against it. Well IMO that is NUTS. As for manipulation, sheesh look at the swings in Natural gas lately up huge, down huge, up huge down again, up up up. Tell me there is not manipulation there. Tell me there is not manipulation to get the DOW back to 10000 or the Naz back to 2000. Crap that is where the manipulation is IMO. Max Pain is manipulation as well. Stocks bounce every time huge numbers of puts are about to go in the money. Manipulation is everywhere but the LEAST in Eurodollars IMO. The beauty of Eurodollar sis if you know what interest rates are going to do, then regardless of how they shake rattle and roll the day to day stuff, you know where they are going. Greenspan has announced his intention and IMO it is 100% free money. You do not even need to be greedy about it, juts bet for a less of a hike than implied, or that rates will go up over a longer period than implied. It is probably one of the safest leveraged bets on the entire planet. I do predict all this will end very badly. No doubt about it Notice how toppy financials are trading even in this "considerable period" environment? Yep and they are all POS stocks to IMO. All the credit card trash and subprime lenders ete ect are dead meat, but I am tired of getting my ass handed to me on a platter shorting this stuff. When junk bonds turn this stuff is gonna get crucified. That should be a clue about your trade. I'm very nervous about all these markets. This is scary shit in my view. Easy has set up a real witches brew. The whole FN mess is scary. We agree. Greenspan is specifically targeting the stock markets IMO. I think there has been active intervention by the PPT as well. 50% of the eitire market in stocks is program trading now. Not based on any fundamentals or anything. Just reckless buying of bubble stocks across the board. Finally I think a lot of this nonsense is just to get Bush re-elected. They are pulling out every FN stop. Unfortunately for him (I hope) they were about 6 months early with their massive stimulus and it is wearing off. Stocks can keep going up IMO unless and until the market perceives Bush is going to lose. We can see DOW 10,500 for all I know. They are attempting to suck in every MFing last dollar into this trash and right now it appears they are succeeding. M

To: russwinter who wrote (3312)	12/12/2003 3:47:06 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

finance.yahoo.com^TNX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c= I think we are 25 b.p. away from "it", for 10-year rates. Once the 4.5% yield is broken to the upside, the bond market may become more uncontrolled than it was in July. "Carry traders" could wind up in the poorhouse, unless they are the first to run to the exit doors. I think the top in bonds is in. It's a matter of time - perhaps, 1-2 months, before this mess blows up! Meanwhile, Treasury auction are running out of new buyers...