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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (3785)	12/12/2003 2:59:55 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 4909

"the recession is the period during which equilibrium is restored to the economy after a long period of over-stimulation due to excessive monetary stimulation through credit expansion." Booms involving periods of extraordinary asset price inflation are episodes of economic drunkenness, where credit is the drink. All those who believe that increasing the money supply in Japan would cure the long ongoing recession there, or that monetary expansion during the 1930s would have prevented the Great Depression, fail to understand, or at least refuse to admit, that the extraordinary booms that preceded those slumps were unnatural and unsustainable economic events originating in too much credit and that it was those booms themselves that were responsible for the ensuing crises. Duncan's analysis of the problem is masterful, and his forecasts are more than likely to be accurate in their broad strokes. Austrians may hope that out of the ashes that will be left by the demise of the international fiat money standard, a return to gold as the basis for the monetary system will be seen in a better light." mises.org

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (3785)	12/12/2003 10:15:25 PM
From: GraceZ	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 4909

debt service as a percentage of income however reach fresh all time highs by the minute Been dropping for a while: economagic.com according to the BLS itself, if you count everyone (i.e. even the 'discouraged' job seekers, etc.) it is almost 10%. According to the BLS the civilian workforce (people either working or not working but able and looking for work) is 146,580,000 with 8,674,000 unemployed making for an unemployment rate of 5.9%. They count 457,000 discouraged workers (able to work, want a job but not actively looking) which if added to the unemployed total would yield an unemployment figure of 6.21%. If we add in the 1,016,000 "not in workforce other than discouraged" you only get a unemployment rate of 6.85. Even if you add in people who didn't look for a job in the last year (the people considered only marginally attached to the workforce) you only get to 8.25%. I wonder what figures from the BLS he added together to get to 10%.

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (3785)	12/15/2003 4:16:02 AM
From: Step1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4909

WF , a long post, well written so i felt compelled to jump in with some comments. I am glad you referenced Liz`s post and refuted many of the claims in it. I have not yet made a formal opinion on the inflation/deflation debate... although i lean towards deflation. The only thing, very uneducated in fact, the only comment i can offer this thread though, is that to believe in inflation, you have to believe that CBs can manage things economics. You have to believe money supplies, interest rates, exchange rate differentials and ratios can be managed. They can, but not usually with the intended consequences on a long term basis. So this fact (that ultimately, "manipulations" fail) points me towards deflation as a result. step1