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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: menanna who wrote (43153)	12/12/2003 10:35:39 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Annamaria, Re: If you can stomach the political take of Bob Chapman I haven't read any of Chapman's work before, and I'm grateful that you've introduced me to him. Reading his first section, on U.S. markets, I find that I'm in agreement with him on much of what he writes, and I find that he's quite informative about the "inside" dealings surrounding FTAA and the back-pedaling of Brazil's Lula from his overtly populist campaign promises. With regard to his comments on gold, I'm not sure that I buy into his logic on the potential for the closing of the South African production due to the appreciation of the Rand. My view would be that gold prices will over time come to a parity between the rand, the US dollar and the price of gold reflecting the fact that George Bush is on the most destructive course for the US currency that the nation has ever endured. There will be hell to pay for Bush's profligacy, unless he is reined in, and his policies reversed soon. He's not only a mad militarist, he's just plain stupid about money. Except that he knows perfectly well how to shovel the stuff into his friends back pockets. **** Re: "We can’t figure out which is more corrupt, the Indonesians or the World Bank and the IMF." It's refreshing to see the truth written in print. Others who comment on such matters have to be so boringly circumspect. Commentators such as Bill Gross of Pimco, or Stephen Roach of Morgan/Stanley hint at these sorts of issues, but are too constrained by their exalted positions to really take good aim at what has become a complete scandal. The IMF and World Bank should be disbanded. They are now doing more harm to the people of the planet than good. They are wholly owned subsidiaries and hatchet men for the multinational corporations. World Bank President Wolfenson's latest meek comments about the Iraqi debt notwithstanding. $$$$$$$$ As to the obvious hint that Chapman gives about shorting Barrick, I'd be leery. Barrick has lots of friends in high places. I've read similar predictions of doom and gloom for Barrick starting a couple of years ago. Like the Energizer bunny, Barrick just keeps going and going. I'd suspect that Uncle Allen at the U.S. Central Bank views this group as 'too big to fail'. &&&&&&&&& Re: "National Socialist America" I do like the cut of this analyst's jib. <g> He's got more than a slight clue, and more than a little punch to his prose.

To: menanna who wrote (43153)	12/12/2003 11:04:33 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 74559

His take on Bush is right on. True fiscal conservatives dislike him intensely and what he has done ... deception upon deception and excuse upon excuse to wildly expand the reach of government. Imperialism at this pt is bearish for the US continuing as THE superpower, IMO. With respect to South African golds -- the rand at 6.4 probably is shutting some mines -- at least curtailing some plans. I don't know about the rand at 5.0 -- could happen I suppose, but I suspect we are near some feedback that will prevent a further rise in the rand. he is right, that if the rand even persists at 6.4, you wouldn't want to own south african stocks, but I think he likes the idea of a few more mines shutting down because it fits his super-bullish take ... 1) nothing says the rand has to stay strong 2) the more important factors influencing supply is not just the mines, but gold above ground and the discretionary selling of that (i.e. lack of) -- it has been the absence of selling which has propelled the market, I think. Investment demand helps, but I don't think that is it ..