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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (43691)	12/20/2003 12:45:33 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Jay, <<I am figuring that 2004 will be tougher to navigate than 2003>> … Yes, as was every year, at the start of the year ;0) As to … <<I am also trying to figure out where I am vulnerable, and where I have missed something>> You achamchen.com are vulnerable in the following ways, in priority: Cash 33.7% (% of Gross Asset) Equity 23.8% Real Estate 19.7% Bonds 12.6% Gold 10.2% … within Cash, you are especially vulnerable with regard to the following: CAD 17.9% AUD 9.7% … within Equity, you are particularly at risk with your allocation to USA, CAD, and AUD-spaces: AUD-space 6.2% CAD-space 6% USA-space 6% China/HK USD-proxy-space 2.2% … within Equity, you are also at concentrated risk in natural resource allocation: Energy Royalty 6.7% Energy 3.1% Mining/other resources 2.9% Gold 2.2% Platinum Group 1.2% …and in Lumacom wager: Media 4.3% In other words, you can be totally wrecked if you are wrong in your fundamental assumptions about TeoTwawKi, namely that if any of the following happens: (a) US officialdom, having successfully topped up its baby-boomer obligations and been more successful in its WAT-WOT-whatnot measures, becomes responsible in its fiduciary duty to its citizens, livens up the economy in a sustainable, prudent, and fiscally wise fashion that causes USD to go up relative to other currencies, while encouraging savings, allowing interest rate to rise and reward capital holders; (b) Chinese officialdom becomes no longer afraid of peasant revolt and worker ire, becomes irresponsible, and allows its economy to tank due to export shortfall and continued lacking of domestic demand, to such an extent that there is a sudden drop in natural resource requirement on a sustained basis; (c) Japanese officialdom becomes responsible and ceases to allow Japanese savings from bleeding out to China by way of the USA, thus raising global interest rate, wreck the monetary inflation gravy train, smack natural resource prices gain, and wrecking natural resource based economies such as AUD and CAD territories; and/or (d) Australian and/or Canadian government figure out ways to make their economies even more dire and ugly than the bigger economies on the planet. So, what are the odds? Are the odds high enough to take some precautionary measures? Is there something you have missed while you are charging about the Financial Last Man Standing Death Match Arena doing over-handed launch of hot shrapnel and under-handed firing of the cool laser cannon? Chugs, Jay