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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (43693)	12/20/2003 1:22:31 AM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Jay, You look like one man conglomerate with that level of diworsification. Statistically speaking, it's been shown that as a speculator spreads the bet in smaller and smaller tranches, that the odds of beating the market decrease exponentially. To paraphrase Jesse Livermore on the art of speculation, it's important to put your few eggs in one basket. And then watch that basket very, very closely. I'm wondering how you can possibly keep abreast of the news and nuance of the dozens of disparate markets you seem to be dabbling in? In each and every market that you participate in, there are other traders who are spending their entire concentration and focus on just that one slice of one industry alone. If superior information is what gives the winning edge, how can you possibly compete with specialists when you have only 1/20th of your time to concentrate on any one tranche or dollop? As Warren Buffett so brilliantly put it, when entering a market, the first thing you need to ask is who is the designated sucker. If you can't say who that is, it's you.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (43693)	12/20/2003 2:22:48 AM
From: Canuck Dave	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

My "Visit to the bullion shoppe". Message 19615278 Thinking about getting physical, LOL. You want me to get you some? I checked it out, and Canadian coins 1937-66 were indeed 80% silver content. Not a bad deal. CD

To: TobagoJack who wrote (43693)	12/20/2003 8:12:27 AM
From: que seria	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay, you risk-loving guy, either your CAD cash/equity allocation is quite low, or I'm dancing on a precipice. The Canadian junior gold and energy companies are extracting one thing the world and particularly N. America should need ever more of (hydrocarbons) but which is ever harder to find, and another thing that the world will demand more of (gold) but which is still readily accessible enough for small fry to find. And the companies are still relatively neglected, although the junior golds have run and should pull back. So your cash position of CAD 17.9% is probably champing at the bit to ride some of the junior explorers that aren't in your mostly energy-related CAD-space 6% equity. I think of myself as having pulled back the reins on my gold equity positions (all Canadian juniors, mostly gold but some diamond positions I need to lighten) and I'm far in excess of your Mining/other resources 2.9% [and] Gold 2.2% [and] Platinum Group 1.2%. I don't take a very quantitative approach to tracking my portfolio, but I must still be ~50% in Canadian juniors. By the way, if PTM.V is too SAF for you among PGM juniors, as I decided it is for me, there is PFN.TO (but it is a spec play). I'll can count on you to tell me when it's safe to get back in the water, although 50% is pretty wet.