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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KLP who wrote (21403)	12/24/2003 3:32:02 PM
From: LindyBill	Respond to of 793685

Thanks for your kind words, Karen. Looks like we all may have a prosperous New Year. Economy surges in third quarter Leap seen leading to a wide recovery By Robert Gavin, Boston Globe Staff, 12/24/2003 The US economy grew at its fastest pace in nearly 20 years in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said yesterday, setting the stage for broad national recovery that some economists say could create about 2 million jobs next year. The outlook for Massachusetts is brightening, too. A report released yesterday by the University of Massachusetts showed the state's economy gaining momentum in November and poised to grow even faster over the next six months. "It is definitely starting to pick up," said Alan Clayton-Matthews, a UMass-Boston professor and author of the monthly report on the state economy. "The recovery is starting to take hold here." Nationally, the recovery is not only taking hold, but advancing rapidly, according to the Commerce Department's third and final estimate of the third quarter's economic performance, as measured by gross domestic product or the nation's output of goods and services. The agency yesterday confirmed its earlier estimate that the economy grew at a sizzling 8.2 percent in the three-month period that ended Sept. 30, more than doubling the growth rate of the previous three months. More important, said economists, the gains were spread throughout the economy, with consumer, business, and government spending all contributing. While economists said the economy can't keep up such a pace, they added that the broadening of the recovery nonetheless forecasts solid growth next year, as well as an acceleration of hiring that could nationally average 150,000 to 200,000 new jobs a month. Also contributing to optimism yesterday were separate reports showing personal income and consumer spending still rising, and consumer sentiment rebounding in the second half of December, following the capture of deposed Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. "Before, everything depended on the consumer," said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight, the Waltham-based consulting firm. "Now, you have capital spending kicking in; you have exports contributing to growth; you have inventories contributing; and inflation is very muted." For much of the past two years, corporate spending has been the missing component of the recovery as businesses, uncertain whether the rebound could be sustained, held back on investments in equipment, technology, and buildings. But corporate spending came back big time in the third quarter, with business investment growing at a torrid 12.8 percent annual rate -- nearly twice the pace of the second quarter. In addition, business investment in software and equipment grew at its fastest pace in more than five years, surging at a 17.6 percent annual rate. That's particularly good news for Massachusetts, which has a high concentration of companies that sell technology products to other companies. Clayton-Matthews, an economist and professor of public policy at UMass-Boston, said the rebound in technology spending is the main factor turning around the state's long-struggling economy. In yesterday's report released through UMass' Donahue Institute, he estimated the state economy grew at a 2.3 percent annual rate in November, compared to 1.5 percent in October. In addition, he projects that growth will further accelerate to a 3.8 percent annual rate over the next six months. Among other positive signs: The state's unemployment rate has dipped for each of the past three months, while the number of first time claims for jobless benefits has remained below 40,000 -- viewed as the dividing line between a recessionary and recovering economy --- for each of the past two months. "All indicators of technology demand, production, and sales have been up very strongly and continue to grow," Clayton-Matthews said. "Even labor market indicators are starting to look better." Still, economists expect the state's job market to recover slowly, estimating that it will take years for Massachusetts to regain the more than 150,000 jobs lost in the recession. In a recent forecast, Michael Goodman, director of economic and public policy research at the Donahue Institute, projected the state would only regain about two-thirds of its lost jobs over the next two years.

To: KLP who wrote (21403)	12/25/2003 1:10:04 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793685

Bush Immigration Plan Hailed Some Mexicans Fear Proposal Is Tactic for '04 Campaign By Kevin Sullivan Washington Post Foreign Service Thursday, December 25, 2003; Page A20 MEXICO CITY, Dec. 24 -- Mexicans reacted with cautious optimism Wednesday to reports that President Bush planned to propose immigration reforms more than two years after the United States shelved the issue -- Mexico's top priority -- to focus on combating terrorism. Analysts said they worried that Bush's plan, which officials said Bush would present before he traveled to Mexico in mid-January for a hemispheric summit and private talks with President Vicente Fox, could be little more than a campaign tactic in the election year. But whatever the motivation, many also said they hoped Bush's interest in Mexico and immigration reform were genuine and that relations that had soured over Mexican opposition to the war in Iraq were on the rebound. "This could be a very risky Christmas present for President Fox," said Rafael Fernandez de Castro, one of Mexico's leading international relations specialists. "This is very welcome news. But I am worried that we could end up getting more security on the border without more legal channels for workers to go to the United States." Republican Party officials said Tuesday that Bush planned to propose a program that would make it easier for immigrants to work legally in the United States, while at the same time stepping up security and enforcement along the 2,000-mile U.S.-Mexico border. They said the plan would include a new program of temporary work visas, as well as an effort to grant legal status to some of the immigrants already in the United States. Most government and private studies estimate that at least 8 million immigrants live in the country illegally, more than half of whom are Mexican. "To do immigration reform, he is going to need Congress and it's going to be a tough battle in an election year," Fernandez de Castro said, noting that since the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, U.S. politicians have been more interested in closing borders than opening them. "But in 2000, the Republicans lost a lot of votes by keeping their mouths shut on migration. They won't make that mistake again." Political analyst Gabriel Guerra called Bush's plan "very impressive if it's really half of what they say it is. "We have to wait and see what all the qualifications are, and how they respond to all the reactions to this trial balloon," Guerra said. "I don't see this as something feasible to get through Congress before the election." Immigration reform was the talk of Mexico three years ago, when Bush and Fox took office within a month of each other, and Bush's first foreign trip was to Fox's ranch in February 2001. Both men portrayed themselves as common-sense ranchers who wanted to improve the deadly situation along their shared border. An estimated 300,000 to 400,000 Mexicans every year cross illegally into the United States looking for work. Thousands have died trying, often by drowning or from exposure in the deserts and mountains in their path. For months after that initial meeting, officials in both governments worked toward a scheme that would have created mechanisms to make immigration, in Bush's words, more "safe, orderly and legal." Mexicans were excited that an issue that affects millions of families seemed to be getting personal attention from a U.S. president. But by the time Fox made a state visit to Washington in early September 2001, it was clear that opposition in Congress meant there would be no immediate breakthroughs. A week later, terrorists attacked New York and the Pentagon, and immigration and Mexico dropped off Bush's list of priorities. Then Fox's vocal opposition to using military force in Iraq, and his refusal to vote with the United States at the U.N. Security Council, sent relations into a deep freeze. Fox and Bush seemed to begin repairing the damage when they met in Thailand at a meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in October. Guerra said he saw the reported immigration plan as "a domestic political initiative. It's not being done to try to salvage the relationship with Fox and become good buddies again." "Of course this is all political; he's trying to appeal to the Hispanic vote, two-thirds of which is Democratic," said Rossana Fuentes, managing editor of the Spanish-language edition of Foreign Affairs magazine. Fuentes said the Mexican government should take a pragmatic, realistic approach to Bush's proposals. She said Mexican officials should insist that the United States also contribute development money to Mexico to help alleviate the poverty and joblessness that leads to mass illegal immigration. "Then we will have a safer continent," she said. "It's in both countries' interest to develop Mexico." © 2003 The Washington Post Company