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To: Amy J who wrote (176275)	12/27/2003 4:44:28 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

I think it is still a bit early early to predict impact. The low impact scenario would predict that SARS this time around would be nipped in the bud and the spread controlled by aggressive management of initial cases and contacts. A high impact scenario would predict that last years outbreak was mostly controlled by seasonal factors and that last years cases were just a heralding of a much worse situation this year as the virus was able to spread far and wide and take up residence at an undetectable level during the off season. I think the first big clue will be the sequence of the virus in the Guangzhou patient. If the virus is essentially "starting over" then the low impact scenario has a chance. If the virus however is picking up where it left off last spring (complete with over 50 mutations), then the incidence could be orders of magnitude higher than last year, causing significant disruptions.