To: kumar who wrote (21851 ) 12/28/2003 4:48:12 AM From: LindyBill Respond to of 793682 What if the assassins succeed in Pakistan? India’s Hindustan Times presents a short-term reassuring and longer-term alarming analysis of the implications of a successful assassination attempt on Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf. Evidently, the top layer of Pakistan’s ruling military is fairly solidly pro-American. Relations with India would be set back, especially the current round of talks, but Pakistan is unlikely to immediately fall into Islamo-fascist hands. But longer term, below the level of Lieutenant General, apparently the Jihadists are well-represented in the upper military ranks within Pakistan. This should be great cause for worry, for India, for America, and for all civilized nations. What if Pervez Musharraf is killed Pramit Pal Chaudhuri New Delhi, December 27 What will happen to the peace process if the next attempt on Pervez Musharraf's life proves successful? For New Delhi, it would most certainly mean that the diplomatic momentum built up through this year would be lost. Any new Pakistani leader would need to go through a period of consolidation of one to two years before recommitting himself to a dialogue with India. The general view is that Musharraf's successor would be Vice-Chief of Army Staff, Muhammad Yusuf. Yusuf is seen as a moderate — and even more friendly to Washington than Musharraf. Yusuf would probably not have too many problems with his senior officers. Only two or three of the 10 corps commanders are seen as Islamicists. B. Raman, RAW's former Pakistan expert, says only one of the 30 officers of lieutenant-general rank and above is definitely a jehadi. Some Indian sceptics argue Yusuf would be a better bet for India than Musharraf, who showed his true colours at the Agra summit. The tougher question would be the choice of the president. If Musharraf dies, Mian Muhammad Sumroo would become the full-fledged president and elections would have to be held in three months. There is no question of the army going back to the barracks, say diplomatic sources. But the posts of president and army chief have to be separated within a year. Result: A hunt for a pliant civilian for the presidency. No one expects Pakistan to have major problems if Musharraf dies. "Not even the US expects chaos to happen," says G. Parthasarathi, ex-Indian envoy to Islamabad. He believes that even the US is shedding its previous dogma that Musharraf is its Great Brown Hope regarding Pakistan. Definitely, the US has seen to it that the entire second rung of the military leadership has been purged of "beards". Raman argues that this may only be a temporary respite. Below lieutenant-general rank, he says, the Pakistan military has "large numbers" of jihadi types, who will assert themselves in a few years' time. He does not rule out Muhammad Aziz Khan, present joint chiefs of staff chairman, eventually replacing Yusuf in case Musharraf is assassinated. "Yusuf is a weak general," he says. The overall view: Musharraf's death would put the peace process on hold for at least a year. His successor would not return to resume a policy of confrontation with India. If it is Yusuf, he could even be friendlier. But beyond a five-year horizon, the sky is cloudy. hindustantimes.com