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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (12852)	12/30/2003 12:24:34 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95574

"Hopefully we'll not have a real vicious sell-off when we get good earnings reports in January." That will depend on how good the earnings are as well as the forecasts for the next quarter. Earnings as expected will not propel the market beyond that 10% you mention earlier. I wonder if there is an analyst out there who sees nasdaq 3000 in the cards for 2004? <g> I have yet to find one who predicted 2000 in 2003. Mike

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (12852)	12/30/2003 6:50:36 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95574

Sarmad, <<Although nasdaq 2k came, it did not bring new highs to my WDC. In fact it is 20% below its October high. Hopefully we'll not have a real vicious sell-off when we get good earnings reports in January.>> If it will make you feel any better, many stocks did not hit new highs when the NASDAQ went over 2000 yesterday. We can take the Group of 25 semi-equips that are shown weekly and see how WDC compares to that list. After climbing fairly monotonically over the summer and early fall, the Group peaked the week ending 11/7 at 608.40. Since then, during the past 7 weeks, the trend has been downward and the Group closed at 566.96 last Friday for a loss of 7 percent at the bottom line. Many of the stocks in the Group were down much more than that. As a matter of fact, 11 out of the 25 were down 10 percent or more. The table below shows the change over the 7 week period. As you can see, WDC is included as well to enable comparison with the Group. WDC is down 16 percent during that period, but it has a lot of company. - 11/7/03 12/26/03 - CLOSE CLOSE PCT SYMBOL PRICE PRICE CHGE FSII 5.94 7.34 24 ASML 18.56 19.95 7 VECO 26.93 28.12 4 LRCX 30.76 31.62 3 TER* 25.16 24.85 -1 PHTN 40.90 39.47 -3 HELX 21.04 20.09 -5 DPMI 24.76 23.63 -5 KLAC* 59.53 56.58 -5 LTXX 15.77 14.91 -5 NVLS* 43.70 40.71 -7 CYMI 48.73 45.23 -7 SMTL 11.50 10.47 -9 COHU 21.11 19.15 -9 ASYT 18.34 16.57 -10 UTEK 32.95 29.18 -11 ATMI 24.68 21.70 -12 BRKS 26.47 23.25 -12 AMAT* 25.25 22.17 -12 PLAB 22.15 19.40 -12 KLIC 16.35 14.16 -13 WDC 13.12 11.03 -16 EGLS 4.18 3.51 -16 WFR 11.85 9.70 -18 MTSN 15.06 12.18 -19 CMOS 16.73 13.02 -22 TOTALS 621.52 577.99 -7 SOX-X 526.42 498.69 -5 COMPQX1970.74 1973.14 0