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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4153)	12/30/2003 11:30:47 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

if the US Economy were in true recovery, then the US$ would be rising, not falling, as was the case in every single previous cycle This is not really a "recovery" issue but a balance of trade issue and an interest rate issue IMO. You state the issue correctly here: $5 BILLION PER DAY OF FOREIGN MONEY IS NEEDED TO KEEP THINGS GOING for trade gap fill for federal deficit finance for mortgage supply This is a very important factor as well have you noticed that jobs are not in any growth stage? In fact it is that latter point that suggest to me we down down in the deflationary spiral like Japan rather that the Argentinian inflationary spiral, or quite possibly some weird worst of both worlds combination of both. At any rate, Greenspan is not going to be successful at inflating this debt away given the piss poor AND STILL deteriating job market that every idiot economist thinks is improving. Mish

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4153)	12/30/2003 1:15:17 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Jim: My dollar take a little different. Inflationary monetary policy and weak dollar do help the US economy to a certain extent short-term. Especially the profits of multinational corporations and the net worth of domestic asset holders. But in the past these have been rapidly offset by surging interest rates as the bond vigilantes moved to protect themselves from the inevitable jump in inflation. But the Fed together with Asian CBs has temporarily short circuited the interest rate and inflation responses. So the US economy and financial markets have enjoyed the positives of a weak dollar without suffering the negatives YET. But watch out below when these negatives start to manifest themselves or more likely when the markets begin to discount them.

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4153)	12/30/2003 6:03:36 PM
From: Kailash	Respond to of 110194

Thanks Jim -- I'm clad one or two people realized I was being ironic. Cheers, Kailash

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4153)	12/30/2003 8:18:00 PM
From: Jill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

A while back Templeton said the $ would fall about 40% and buy Aussie or Canadian $. Soros also made an easy bet against the $. Seems to me in a global economy the "insiders" know what their buddies are doing and why. I sort of agree w/ the article Kailash quoted although I wish I could've held my cash in euro's or even aussie $, but I only recently switched some $ to Interactive Brokers. Fidelity doesn't let me do that in my cash account. And I'm not sure the $ will fall a heck of a lot further. Meanwhile, I did the crazy thing of buying OTM rambus leaps a few days ago and they are up 30% but I'm just going to hold hoping for bigger profit, altho I really should've sold today. I know how risky this is and it is not at all a good overall approach. :-)