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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (44106)	12/31/2003 10:25:30 AM
From: RealMuLan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Ramsey, "Officially, bad loans of the Big Four banks make up 21 per cent of total outstanding loans in the country, or a whopping 2 trillion yuan (US$240 billion), and this is after the transfer of about 1.4 trillion yuan (US$170 billion) worth of bad loans to asset management companies in 1999 and 2000." www1.chinadaily.com.cn Among those 1.4 trillion Yuan which had been transferred bet. 1999-2000, 1 trillion Yuan was from the real estate bubble initiated by Deng Xiaoping South tour in 1992. So this leads to the question that how much new bad debt would result from this current real estate boom? NO one will know for sure until 5-10 years from now when the loan is due (referred to my last post). My guess is there would be plenty although not as much as the last boom. Now about the dif. bet. the Standard and Poor estimate and the Chinese official estimates: S&P claims 50% of the loan made by the Big Four are bad debt, while Chinese official said anywhere bet. 21%-25%. You can read some of the argument from the following article. Personally, I think the official number from China is reasonable, and S&P estimate, just like most Western media, knows little about Chinese system, so make some wrong judgement<g> cnien.com.cn (Chinese version) www1.chinadaily.com.cn beijingreview.com.cn (Chinese version) Now about me, I am not a guy, but a lady<g>. And the music instrument you were talking about should be spelled as "Er Hu", not my name, right<g>?