Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (4266)	1/2/2004 12:31:15 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

This guy thinks short term rates will rise and long term rates will not. I am sorry but he is smoking something strong. M

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (4266)	1/2/2004 12:38:28 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

The best barometer of monetary disturbance is gold. Its average price in the last decade was about $330 an ounce. Now it's more than $400 an ounce. The longer the price remains that high, the more trouble we'll have down the road. The optimum price is around $350 to $360 an ounce. What lunacy. The optimum price of gold. How the F does he know what the optimum price is. Unless and until a major country backs their currency with gold, there is no such thing as an optimum price. I wonder what JimWillie thinks the "optimum price is" For that matter you or Russ. If you have an optimum price what is it and why? M

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (4266)	1/2/2004 1:37:59 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

several enlightened people are expecting advent of inflation or I mean, price inflation since inflation has been monumental for three full years now in July 2003, the bond market slammed its fist in the Fed's face, declaring as only it can that the loose monetary policy has gone far enough, that financial leverage has gone far enough, that agency hedging has gone far enough yet by January 2004, we have continued accommodative Fed monetary policy, with only a bone tossed on bias, citing balanced inflation and deflation risks I believe price inflation will soon be significant and in several key quarters by significant I mean climbing toward 4% enough to provide another shock to the bond market of course, pricing power on finished goods will be kept under foot rather, I refer to services, production costs, energy costs, and much more I still maintain that this 3-yr TNX chart indicates higher longterm interest rates this is a clear upward biased Head & Shoulders bull pattern it indicates LT rates are heading to 5.5% in the next several months the right shoulder is about complete time for the jump very soon, like weeks notice the stochastix, about to show a crossover upturn from a low level the 50day MA is trending up also enough of this secular price deflation bullshit it will be interrupted by a spate of 2-3 years of price inflation the Fed cannot get away with such rampant monetary largesse that should kill bonds, kill the US$, kill housing, kill consumerism, and lift gold THAT IS THE SHOCK BY MID-2004 stockcharts.com[h,a]waclyyay[de][pb50!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!Uh15,5,5]&pref=G / jim