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To: Larry S. who wrote (50311)1/4/2004 4:50:30 PM
From: DanZ  Respond to of 53068
 
Minor correction: There are 6 shorts and 52 longs in the contest.

Short write up on my two picks:

VSH is trading at a PEG of more than 5 and is at the mean analyst price target of 23. I was very bullish on VSH in September 2002 when it was trading at 10. It's interesting to go back and read old comments, especially when you ended up being right. lol I came across an old post of mine while searching this thread for "VSH" the other day. Message 18012095 . Well, now I think that the stock is way overvalued given that the company is only expected to grow earnings 15% per year over the next five years and the stock is valued at more than 80 times earnings. I am short this stock in my personal account as well at an average price of 22.85.

MTXX has been a favorite of mine for several years. The stock is finally starting to break out after a very long basing pattern. This is very bullish long term, and I think that the stock could do well over the next month simply because of the seasonality of the company's current products, further discounting of good fourth quarter 2003 and first quarter 2004 results, and likelihood that Matrixx will release additional information about new products along with their fourth quarter earnings release. The stock is still undervalued in my opinion since the company should grow their earnings more than 100% this year and next (at least) and the stock is still trading at a PEG of only about 0.5 compared to a PEG of about 1.5 for their competitors. I'd love to see a pull back in this stock before it resumes its rally so I can buy back what I sold in the 18.10 to 18.50 range, but I am still holding a bunch if it keeps going.



To: Larry S. who wrote (50311)1/4/2004 6:42:03 PM
From: Carl Worth  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53068
 
DAAT manufactures gun cleaning kits and gun locks, along with other related products...they earned about .015 on revenues of 1.1M in Q3 ended 9/30/03, and announced that they did over 1M in sales in october alone, in part due to a large shipment to WMT...note that the .015 is on a fully taxed basis, even though the company has TLCF's which mean that they are not yet paying taxes...they choose to report this way to make the results easily comparable once they do start paying taxes

the CEO has stated that he thinks they can do 7 to 10M in revenue for 2004, with 2 to 2.5M in pretax profits...by my calculations, this should translate to at least .25 in after tax EPS in 2004...they should also have excellent results for the quarter just completed

AMLJ is a manufacturer of microwave amplifiers and subsystems, serving the defense and wireless communications markets....for Q2 ended 9/30/03, they reported 1.7M in sales (70% increase y/y) and .04 a share vs a loss the previous year....six month results are .07 vs a loss

this one has just started reporting positive results but seems to be on a nice growth path now, and is certainly in two areas which should enjoy solid growth overall

neither of these stocks is known at all, with continued good results and some recognition, they could easily double (or much more in the case of DAAT) in the next year...whether or not they can keep up with larry in one month remains to be seen <G>

carl