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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (12908)	1/4/2004 9:03:56 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95531

Sarmad, here's a link to a link with the interview you mentioned Message 19651960

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (12908)	1/4/2004 9:40:13 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95531

Sarmad, Good to hear from you as always. Boy, you sound like you are having a case of the "jitters". <<There's an interview in Barrons with Nancy Lazar. She said that the '87 crash came after the dollar had declined 23%. The dollar is down 17% now - from a year ago. Very likely we'll have another two quarters of low interest rates (and slightly higher stock prices). And then Kaboom! Fed hike. Inflation. Higher rates. 25% stock price decline.>> This is my opinion, but I don't think that scenario is going to happen - at least not for many months. I just wrote a post on RtS's thread on I-Hub which details some of my thinking going forward. (I just tried to reference my post on I-Hub, but the site has apparently just gone down - you can review it there on RtS's thread.) I agree that when rate hikes come, it may be a negative for the market, but how much may still be open to question. I also think we are a long way away from a rate hike - it could easily be next year before we have a rate hike - in the meantime the "market" ought to be doing just fine thank you. The falling dollar is not necessarily a negative. Briefing.com thinks the falling dollar is "much ado about nothing" and may turn out to be a net positive. Their sited reason is that a falling dollar causes profit boosts for all American companies doing business in international markets. Just because something happened in 1987 doesn't mean that it is going to happen in 2004, 17 years later. Anyway, those are my thoughts along with the post on RtS's thread. I hope everything goes well with your investments. Also, my track record is not very good, so my advice/thoughts are very suspect.;-) Best wishes to you in the New Year. Don