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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4488)	1/6/2004 1:35:44 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Jim, at EUR 1.28 Europe is in worst shape than the US. Similar Gov. Budget deficit, higher unemployed, 50% more aged 65 and Italy government debt over 120% of GDP for example, population growth almost stagnant v. the US with 1% population growth and immigration of many professional contrary to Europe. Only the trade balance is better, but will tip into negative at present FX levels

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (4488)	1/7/2004 4:51:34 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

<JYen should be valued at $1.50, it is undervalued by at least 50%> I'm now wondering why the JY shouldn't just be totally trashed along side of the USD? After all, Japan and it's currency is nothing but a receptacle for massive holdings of Old Maid cards (US debt), and the Japanese govt has borrowed more than anybody. mof.go.jp How could the JY possibly have real fundamental value relative to just about any other asset in the world? I wouldn't own Japanese assets if it was the last option on the planet, and think they end up defaulting on the JGB at the rate they are going, especially if their JGB market comes unravelled. UST debt should outlast the JGB in this race to the bottom, by at least a half decade. The bet going forward might be a hyper weak Yen-Dollar in tandem, and a crash in both the US AND Japanese bond markets, especially the later. Anybody found some good reading on this prospect?