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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: scott_jiminez who wrote (9947)1/7/2004 11:02:28 AM
From: VIXandMore  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 52153
 
Thoughts on AXYX valuation?

I'm curious if any of the resident gurus are willing to evaluate the prospects for AXYX and their potential in the Alzheimers market.

This question partly triggered by today's runup and Sandler & Co., which "names Axonyx as their #1 idea going into next week's JP Morgan Healthcare conference (co presents on Jan 13), with a $15 target; firm is hearing that not only is the co's Phenserine (for Alzheimers) acting with the highest AChE specificity, but also acts as an APP inhibitor, and they believe that the drug may demonstrate an ability to stop or even reverse the process of Alzheimers, with a superior side effect profile. Also, firm would not be surprised if a major pharmaceutical commercial deal for Phenserine occurs in 1H04."



To: scott_jiminez who wrote (9947)1/7/2004 1:32:55 PM
From: Henry Niman  Respond to of 52153
 
Here's more:

Below the official Chinese news agency acknowledges that the second patient with SARS symptoms has SARS antibodies, but no longer has a fever. This second case some remarkably like the confirmed case. It will be interesting to see if any sequence data can be obtained from the second patient. The key question raised by these two unlinked cases which happened at about the same time, is how may SARS CoV infected people are there with even milder symptoms?

Last season the case fatality rate rose as did the mutations. The reliable of the reports have some question marks, but last year there were only 5 reported deaths among the first 305 cases, yielding a case fatality rate of 1.6%. By the time the epidemic emerged from the Metropole Hotel and spread internationally, the rate rose 10 fold. It was even higher in Mainland China and Taiwan, but then at the end of the epidemic, the rates reported by mainland China and Taiwan plummeted, to bring the worldwide rate below 10%. Moreover, after the fact Taiwan went back and reclassified 1/2 of the cases that were SARS CoV positive and called them SARS-CoV "related" and this dropped their case fatality rate even more. In fact they lowered it so much that the rate was lower for the SARS CoV positive suspect cases than the SARS CoV negative - they managed to show that SARS CoV infections saved lives!

In any event, regardless of the reliability of case fatality reports, the SARS CoV clearly accumulated mutations. There were 27 early mutations and the earliest isolated, GZ01, only had 2. Likewise another early isolate, GZ43, only had 4. By the time SARS emerged from the Metropole Hotel, all linked isolates (as well as all isolates outside of mainland China) had all 27 positions mutated (which was in addition to 23 mutations found in all human isolates).

This year the first sequence of the S gene is identical to a civet isolate. However, the isolate is more "humanized" indicating it already has some of the human mutations that were not found in animal isolates last year. Last year most of the mutations arose in February, March, and April. This year the earliest isolates seem to have more mutations than last season at this time. I'm sure that this year both patients and sequences will be closely monitored..

www1.chinadaily.com.cn

No symptoms from 2nd suspected case
( 2004-01-07 23:54) (China Daily)

The second suspected case of SARS, a female restaurant employee, has had no fever symptoms for eight consecutive days, local medical experts said yesterday.

The patient was exposed to the public for the first time by authorities on January 5.

She had tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) antibody on her first test, said Guangzhou Respiratory Disease Research Institute Director Zhong Nanshan on Monday in Hong Kong.

More tests were to be conducted to decide whether she was in fact a suspected SARS case or not, Zhong added.

Tests have been conducted everyday, but the results remain unknown, said a source in provincial medical circles.



To: scott_jiminez who wrote (9947)1/8/2004 9:22:23 AM
From: Henry Niman  Respond to of 52153
 
Ron, Several SARS CoV sequences were released at GenBank today from Taiwan (last seasons outbreak) and papers will appear shortly in Lancet and NEJM supporting the following molecular analysis of SARS, which gives some insight into the re-emergence in Guangzhou and future problems in vaccine development:

The new SARS CoV sequences from Taiwan make it abundantly clear that most of the Taiwan infections trace back to the Amoy Gardens outbreak in Hong Kong. In the Amoy Gardens outbreak, the index case, CUHK-AG3, had three diagnostic mutations. One, T26477G, had been seen in isolate, CUHK-Su10, from the mother of the Prince of Wales index case. The other two, T3852C and C11493T, were detected in an isolate, CUHK-AG3, from a fatal Amoy Gardens case. Interestingly, this isolate did not have the mutation linked to the Prince of Wales index case, but instead had a mutation, A28102C, that had been previously found in a masked palm civet isolate, SZ3. This combination raised the possibility that this fatal case was in fact infected with a recombinant SARS CoV.



This likely recombinant raises the question of how often such recombinations happen and the recent release of another sequence, Shanghai QXC1, at GenBank this week, provided another clear example of recombination. The isolate had come from a Shanghai tourist who had visited Beijing, and analysis of the SARS CoV showed that the 5' end of the genome had indeed come from Beijing, including multiple markers found in Beijing and other early isolates from mainland China. However, the 3' portion of the genome, beginning with Spike gene clearly looked like it linked back to the Metropole Hotel. This 3' portion included T23220G, which had been previously seen in Tor2, isolated from the son of the Toronto index case, which of course came from the Metropole Hotel. However, the Shanghai isolate was from a patient who had developed symptoms in May, so much could have happened between May and the February outbreak at the Metropole Hotel.



However, the disappearing and reappearing of Metropole Hotel markers was evident much earlier. They entered the public domain with the publication of sequences of initial Singapore isolates. The Singapore outbreak was also linked to the Metropole Hotel via another super spreader event. The index case was one of three tourists who had visited the Metropole Hotel and she was linked directly to three of the other four published Singapore sequences. Her isolate, SIN2500, did not have markers in common with the other isolates from the hotel, but an isolate from her physician, Frankfurt1 and FRA, had a mutation, T26600C, that was also seen in HKU-39849, which came from the brother-in-law of the Metropole Hotel index case. Thus, the common mutation was missing from the common contact, the Singapore index case. This mutation skipping was seen in another mutation, C28268T, found in the physician's isolate. He had no contact with the Singapore index case's grandmother before he left for a scientific meeting in New York, yet this second mutation was in the isolate, SIN2774, from the grandmother, but it also was not seen in the common contact, the isolate from the Singapore index case.



This mutation skipping again comes back to the Metropole Hotel via the third international link, Hanoi. The Hanoi outbreak was also linked to a visitor to the Metropole Hotel and the isolate, Urbani, which was from the physician who first alerted WHO to the SARS outbreak. The Urbani isolate also had mutations that were rarely seen. However, one of the mutations, C7919T was found in one of the Taiwan isolates, TWC1, which had the 3 markers tied to the Amoy Gardens outbreak. Another Urbani mutation, A19064G, is also found in TWC1, as well as two more isolates from Taiwan, TWC2 and TWC3, which also have the three markers linked to Amoy Gardens.



Thus, it is becoming increasingly clear that the patients actually have multiple sequences which can be passed onto contacts, but may not appear in the one isolate from an index case. In fact a higher number of these multiple species may be the hallmark of super spreaders.



In any event, it is clear that the SARS CoV is capable of considerable mixing and matching of well conserved mutations within the same individual. More examples of quasi-species in Beijing, involving the Spike mutations seen in the BJ302 series will be published soon as will more examples of these "missing mutations" from the Metropole Hotel. This frequent shuffling of genetic information in SARS CoVs has serious implications for the design and efficacies of vaccines, and this molecular shuffling will probably be seen in "humanized" animal SARS CoVs, which may play a significant role in the current re-emerging outbreak in Guangzhou.



To: scott_jiminez who wrote (9947)1/8/2004 8:12:48 PM
From: Henry Niman  Respond to of 52153
 
Ron, Here's more detail on the upcoming Lancet paper:

The SARS paper by Yi Guan et al, soon to be published in this week's Lancet, provides molecular epidemiological evidence indicating that the vast majority of SARS cases in Hong Kong (and by extension, the rest of the world outside of Mainland China), link back to the Metropole Hotel. Although there were at least four other cases (represented by HKU-33867, HKU-36871, CUHK-W1, CUHK-L2) from mainland China (Guangzhou and Shenzhen) that antedated the Metropole Hotel transmission, PCR analysis of the a 2149 bp fragment of the S1 gene from 137 patients indicates that they all link back to the sequences found in the Metropole Hotel isolates, including two isolates HK-33a and HK-33b from the Metropole Hotel index case. In the region surveyed, the two Metropole Hotel isolates differ in one position, C22559T. However, the mutation is a silent and found in 10 clinical samples, but the mutation is not present in any of the SARS CoV isolates at GenBank.

Interestingly, two of these samples also have the Tor2 mutation, T23220G, which is the only specific mutation in the S gene found in isolates linked to the super spreader events that seeded the epidemics in Toronto, Singapore, Hanoi, and Hong Kong. Even more interesting however, is the fact that 18 additional samples have the Tor2 mutation. This result provides strong clues for the fate of the missing Metropole mutations. The Tor2 mutation is relatively rare, and up until this week, it was not reported in any of the SARS CoV sequences at GenBank. However, the complete sequence of Shanghai QXC was deposited and it has the Tor2 mutation (the previously deposited partial sequence did not cover this region).

The QXC sequence was from a Shanghai tourist who had visited Beijing prior to developing SARS last May, and the sequence does have several Beijing specific mutations, as well as polymorphisms seen only in earlier mainland isolates. However, the Beijing and mainland markers are missing from the 3/ end of the genome, which has a Metropole Hotel-like sequences, including the Tor2 mutation.

Thus, the recombination in QXC is of interest, but the Tor2 mutation in 20 Hong Kong samples raises an additional issue since the mutation was not present in either isolate from the Metropole Hotel index case. Moreover, the Toronto index case checked out of the Metropole Hotel the day the Metropole Hotel index case arrived, so there was no time for her to be infected and pass the infection to others in Hong Kong. Creative scenarios can be used to get the mutation to Hong King such as transmission through some common object carried by the Toronto index case that was contaminated by the Metropole Index case, or transmission in Toronto followed by retransmission by a third party back to Hong Kong. However, the simplest explanation invokes multiple variants within the Metropole Hotel index case. Base on the two isolates, the index case had a least two distinct SARS CoVs, but data from other isolates outside of Hong Kong suggest that there were many variations which subsequently appeared in patients linked to the index cases for Hanoi and Singapore.

These other examples have been previewed previously, but the presence of 20 samples with the Tor2 mutation in Hong Kong provides the strongest evidence for multiple variants in super spreaders, including the Metropole hotel index case.



To: scott_jiminez who wrote (9947)1/8/2004 9:18:25 PM
From: Henry Niman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 52153
 
Ron. Here's more on SARS, Super Spreaders, and Selection:

Although SARS predictions run the gamut from no SARS, to a few cases, to case controlled preparedness, to the Big One, I think it might be worthwhile to review the molecular data, because in the end, SARS is still a VERY molecular story.

Last season SARS was largely driven by super spreader events. The data that will be published in Lancet this week clearly shows that the vast majority of cases in Hong Kong trace back to the Metropole Hotel and sequence analysis of isolates around the world show that most of the significant International spread also traces back to the Metropole Hotel via super spreader events. The transmission at the Metropole Hotel led to outbreaks in Toronto, Hanoi, Singapore, and Hong Kong. The transmission in Hong Kong led to a super spreader event at the Prince of Wales Hospital, which then led to super spreader events at Amoy Gardens and China Air Flight CA-112. Amoy Gardens led to the spread of SARS in Taiwan and CA-112 brought SARS to Hohhot and back to Beijing in Mainland China.

Thus, if there was no transmission at the Metropole Hotel, most of the SARS cases outside of mainland China would not have happened last season. The optimistic forecast would say that with increased awareness, SARS may appear, but will not spread as it did at the Metropole Hotel. However, there were at least 4 SARS cases in Hong Kong which were imported from Guangzhou or Shenzhen before the Metropole Hotel, yet these four cases had little impact, even though there were no special SARS precautions. Thus, the spread of SARS in Hong Kong was controlled less by precautionary measures and more by the circumstances intrinsic to the Metropole Hotel transmission. One factor may have been timing, because the visit to the Hotel was about 10 days post initial symptoms, when viral loads tend to be highest. However, the Metropole index case was clearly infected with a number of variants, each readily distinguishable from other mainland isolates introduced into Hong Kong at the time.

Molecular analysis shows that from the number of mutations in the SARS CoV genome increased quite significantly between the national Guangzhou isolates and the Metropole Hotel explosion. Thus the real question centers around the likelihood of another Metropole Hotel incident. If there are none, then this year the number of fatal cases will be significantly reduced. If there is one, the greater awareness will also probably play a significant role. However, what would happen if there were 10 or 100?

The chances of 10 or 100 Metropole Hotels is almost certainly related to the molecular clock of the SARS CoV. The first two cases in Guangzhou have been relatively mild. Both patients were ill for about a week and then rapidly recovered. However, both cases were relatively young, and the sequence of the Spike gene of the first case is a more humanized version of civet isolates and in fact is an exact match of a "humanized" civet isolate. Last year, it looks like the molecular clock was set near zero at the end of 2002 and the number of mutations in the Metropole Hotel isolates in late February was close to 50.

The "humanized" civet isolate certainly seems to be well above 0, but of course all mutations are not equal, and their evolution is dependent on selection of a number of fairly random events. Thus, close watch of the sequences and the calendar may provide more information about this seasons outbreak, than press releases or preparedness lessons.