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Strategies & Market Trends : JAPAN-Nikkei-Time to go back up? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: borb who wrote (3617)	1/7/2004 6:57:21 PM
From: Julius Wong	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3902

If we divide people into different age groups, 0-10, 10-20, 20-30, 30-40, etc., the number in each group is not a constant. People in the age group 40-50 have higher income, pay more taxes, and spend more then the group in 60-70. When there are too many old people, government collects less revenue, spend more on various senior programs. The old people also spend less, therefore not helping commercial development. The problem will be solved by nature. The old people will become older, and eventually leave the earth going to heaven. ****** From this article business.scotsman.com Currently, Europe accounts for some 19.5% of global GDP, Japan for 13.3%, America 32% and China 3.7%. By 2025, according to the World Council for Sustainable Development, the US share of global GDP will have fallen to 20%. That of Europe will be down to just 10.3%, or barely half the US total. China will have advanced to more than 15% while the GDP share accounted for by other developing countries will have risen from 37% to 43%. The key driver of this astonishing change in global economic power is population. North America, the EU and the Asian high income countries together generate some 77% of world GDP yet account for less than one sixth of the world’s population. But it is not just head count numbers that matter. Consider this comparison. China’s population is 1,285 million and growing at an average annual rate of 0.7% a year. Some 24.8% of its population is aged under 15. By contrast, the population of the euro area is 303.2 million, growing at just 0.3% a year and 16% of is aged under 15. ... ... ... ... But the starkest contrast is with Europe and in particular the economies of the Euro-zone. Back in October investment bank HSBC looked at the longer term prospects for Europe and its numbers were damning. World Bank figures looking out to 2010 suggest that the working population of the Euro-zone is now stagnating while the dependency ratio (those aged 65 as a proportion of the working age population) is already on a rising trend. But that’s not the end of the story. The pace of decline picks up after 2010 and the dependency ratio is forecast to double over the next 40 years. Specifically the forecast is that the Euro-zone’s working population will decline from 205 million in 2005 to 167 million in 2035 and to 155 million in 2045. Meanwhile the dependency ratio rises from 24.3 currently to 27.2 by 2010, 42.4 by 2030 and to 53 by 2045.