"Hey, we are sick of the 'Gloom and Doom!'"
As Economy Revs Up, Democrats Shift Rhetorical Gears
By Jonathan Weisman
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, January 8, 2004; Page A04
With the stock market surging and economic indicators soaring, Democratic presidential hopefuls are shifting their economic messages from a broad indictment of President Bush's economic stewardship to more targeted appeals to what they call stretched and struggling Americans.
The pivot underscores what appears to be a growing challenge for Democrats, who had hoped to make the economy the centerpiece of the 2004 campaign. Democratic pollsters and political strategists are warning candidates that a drumbeat of economic gloom could make their party look out of touch with reality.
On Monday, two White House hopefuls -- Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.) and retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark -- delivered economic addresses showcasing the Democrats' subtle shift in tone. Both narrowed their focus to what Kerry called the "quiet struggles of everyday Americans," rising college and health care costs, growing personal debt, and shrinking savings.
Not until the end of his speech in Iowa did Kerry speak broadly of the "so-called recovery."
In a speech yesterday, Kerry pushed the theme further, saying he would appoint a "director of personal economic security" to protect workers' pensions and retirement benefits, crack down on identity theft, and ensure fair housing lending.
Clark told an audience in Nashua, N.H.: "In countless homes tonight, after the kids have gone to bed, hardworking parents will look at each other across the kitchen table and they'll wonder how they will make ends meet, how they will pay the bills, clothe their children, care for an elderly parent -- and still have enough left over to enjoy a night at the movies."
Sen. John Edwards (D) said he plans to release today a book-length explanation of what his policy proposals mean to middle-class Americans and their real-world problems.
Former Vermont governor Howard Dean -- reacting to his rivals perhaps more than to the changing economy -- is moving toward a broad tax revision plan that would include a significant tax cut for the middle class and retirement savings incentives with middle-income appeal. Noting that he has called for repealing Bush's 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, Dean said last night: "As I have consistently said since November 2002, I will propose additional tax reforms that will make the tax code fairer for working families -- and that will ensure that corporations and the wealthy pay their fair share."
Dean had maintained that his campaign would be propelled by a deep well of public anger and discontent, but aides are acknowledging they will need more.
A Clark campaign aide said of his candidate's revised focus: "There's no question this is something that can work for us regardless of what might happen on the job front and economic growth. We will still talk about jobs and the economy, but we'll bring the other half in, too -- middle-class distress."
The reason for the strategic shift is clear. The Dow Jones industrial average ended 2003 up 25 percent. The economy grew at a blistering 8.2 percent annualized rate in July, August and September. Housing and other construction are at record highs. Interest rates remain low and, after a three-year downturn, the manufacturing sector last month expanded at a pace not seen since 1983, when another economic recovery ushered Ronald Reagan toward his landslide reelection.
Those numbers are beginning to translate into growing public optimism, said Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart. In November 1991, as President George H.W. Bush was kicking off his reelection campaign, 73 percent of Americans said the economy was bad or very bad. The number reached 75 percent by October 1992.
Last February, 60 percent of Americans believed the economy was bad or very bad. By last month, only 42 percent believed that, while 55 percent said the economy was good, Hart said.
The University of Pennsylvania's National Annenberg Election Survey found in mid-December that 58 percent of Americans believed the economy would be better in a year, up from 52 percent in October. The poll, released yesterday, also found that Bush's approval rating on the economy had nudged into positive territory, 51 percent, up from 46 percent in October.
"Doomsaying is just not going to do it," said another Democratic pollster, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. "It's not the mood now. It's never been the mood."
To be sure, pockets of economic distress remain. Ed Sarpolus, a prominent pollster in Michigan, said a survey just before Christmas found that 60 percent of Michiganders disapproved of Bush's economic performance, leaving Bush tied with an unnamed Democrat in the president's bid to win the state. Ohio, a must-win state for Bush, showed similarly bad economic numbers, Sarpolus said.
But even nationally, there are fertile economic grounds to plow, if the message is crafted correctly, Democrats say. Despite surging economic growth and stock prices, weekly wages rose only $1.48 last year, in inflation-adjusted terms, according to the Labor Department. Hourly wages rose 2 cents.
Employers added 194,000 new workers between September and November, but beneath that broad number, job struggles continue.
From November 2002 to November 2003, 41,000 more Americans took multiple jobs, bringing that total to 7.3 million. By November, nearly 5 million Americans said they were working part time because they could not find full-time work, an increase of 604,000 from a year before and 97,000 in just a month.
The unemployment rate slipped from 6 percent in October to 5.9 percent in November. But add those involuntary part-time workers and people not actively looking for work but wanting a job, and the picture changes. The "labor underutilization" rate rose in November, to 9.7 percent, from 9.5 percent in October and 9.4 percent the year before.
"Those people on Wall Street, on cable news, the financial analysts are trying to tell people they're doing better," Clark said. "But people across America are struggling right now."
Most economic forecasters believe the recovery will continue smartly through this year, but many Democrats are not ready to concede the point. A senior Dean economic aide said the candidate's staff met recently to consider whether to modify Dean's plan to distribute $100 billion to state and local governments over two years as a "Fund to Restore America."
They decided to leave the plan unchanged, the aide said, in large part because Dean's economic advisers cannot agree on their forecasts. Some see a bursting housing bubble or a crisis in the dollar resulting in a broad sell-off of stocks this year. Others see an economic expansion of up to 5 percent.
"Only a fool would try to say what the [economic] issues are going to be" this fall, the Dean aide said.
Hart said Democrats will have to appeal to a sense of financial uncertainty, while they try to tie Bush to wealthy special interests bankrolling his campaign, which has raised $120 million so far. "There can't be the simplicity of '92," pollster Hart said. "It's going to have to be more personal, more specific, and it's going to have to relate back to that $120 million worth of campaign contributions."
Republicans are dubious of the strategy. Americans simply cannot be convinced they feel worse than they do, said Robert Teeter, a GOP pollster.
"It seems to me for the Democrats to beat Bush on the economy, they have to have a set of facts, a reality, that simply doesn't exist today," he said. "They can't win on the argument that things aren't good when they are obviously getting better."
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