Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (4678)	1/9/2004 4:59:57 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

but it will be a rate increase that will cause it No offense intended but you are losing your mind. I am rolling profits into the next thing. Lower rates in Europe. That CAN spark a rally in the US$. M

To: russwinter who wrote (4678)	1/9/2004 5:01:26 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Massive Intervention FRom John Succo - Minyanville I cannot overstate the incredible amount of intervention that occurred overnight in the dollar/yen. We estimate that the Japanese bought around $8 billion starting at 106 all the way up to 108.25 with an average execution of 107.25. The government of Japan basically took all offers in an attempt to break the will of the market. They obviously didn’t accomplish this since the dollar is trading back down to 106.60. They are in buying again after the employment data has sent the dollar reeling, at least against other currencies. At this rate the Japanese are on track to buy nearly all of our public debt. At this rate they seem to be willing to finance our entire trade imbalance. There is only one analogy I can use for this situation. In the mid 1980’s the Japanese went on a buying binge in the U.S.: they bought huge amounts of our real estate. Does anyone remember Pebble Beach and Rockefeller Center? Well, we know how that ended. After the 1987 crash they sold it all back to us for 50 cents on the dollar. This made the whole crash episode much easier for this country and much harder on theirs. Thank you! They seem to be doing it again. Thank you! Thank you! But please don’t stop.

To: russwinter who wrote (4678)	1/9/2004 5:09:03 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

From Jason on Minyanville • Very small options traders (those trading 10 contracts or less) have been buying calls to open at a pace nearly three times that of puts, something seen not since the height of the bubble. Last week, larger traders (those trading at least 50 contracts) concentrated 27% of their volume on protective put purchases, and the only week since 2000 that matches that kind of spread between the two traders was the week ended December 28, 2001, close to the end of that upmove.

To: russwinter who wrote (4678)	1/9/2004 6:21:04 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

>>It will be Prof Plum (the Fed and other CBs), with a lead pipe (surprise rate increase), in the kitchen (to support the USD, and cool off input inflation).<< They are looking farther out and aren't concerned in the least about inflation. They know better. Here is an idea: If you are absolutely convinced that rates are going higher -- why not short the industry most dependent on the continuation of low rates: Housing. If you are wrong on rates -- they go down and not up -- you may still make some money shorting housing as the credit bubble fails. If you are right -- you will make much more than if you had shorted treasuries.