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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Grommit who wrote (18388)	1/9/2004 11:38:22 PM
From: Brinks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78486

OT perhaps -- Nat gas and Energy.Good Link, Brinks. What do we do about it? I've focused totally on North America Natural Gas for several reasons: 1) There is no OPEC to solve the North America natural gas supply problem 2) Problem will last for Years since LNG supplies only a tiny portion of US supply and there is no way to ramp up for years. 3) Natural Gas demand by new power plants coming online is skyrocketing-this was a result of a 1998 government report that forecasted ample supply of natural gas for years to come 4) all the reasons listed in the best interview and analysis I've ever seen: An Interview with Andrew Weissman by Bill Powers, Editor Canadian Energy Viewpoint January 4, 2004 financialsense.com 5) the government's natural gas policy is to hope for warm weather which is doomed 6) Warren Buffett moved on the area in 2001 and now controls approximately 8% of the US natural gas pipelines (this total me I was focusing on the right area) Bottom line is there is no solution to solve the North America natural gas supply problem. This is the reason I've focused on the area for investment. I own several Canadian companies that are selling for 3 to 4 times cash flow and revenues and profits are up dramatically. The beauty of these is that there are numerous Billion $ Canadian Energy Trusts that gobble these small companies up when they reach a decent size. Thus this is the exit strategy for these. My goal is to emulate the performance of UPL (Wyoming): finance.yahoo.com I've owned DBLE which is in Wyoming for some time and I expect it to go a lot higher: finance.yahoo.com I believe I've found a ground floor natural gas opportunity at $ 1.10 share that has enormous potential in the same areas as UPL and DBLE. I've talked with the company and believe they are totally shareholder oriented. I've purchased shares as recently as today. Management has had a terrific history and presence in the Rocky Mountain region. Plus they have diversifed their risks by focusing on several areas. American Oil and Gas, Inc. Symbol AOGI American Oil and Gas, Inc. is an independent oil and natural gas company engaged in exploration, development and production of hydrocarbon reserves primarily in the Rocky Mountain region. Additional information about American Oil and Gas can be found at the Company's website: www.americanoilandgasinc.com What intriqued my interest was the graph on the website depicting potential North America sources of natural gas. It's all Rocky Mountain where UPL and DBLE are located who have had much success. I also believe that coalbed methane is the future for US natural gas. It only supplys approximately 8% of US natural gas today. See the following for more detail: Message 19669023 From the website (who could ask for anything better): Company Strengths Low G & A Strong Cash Flow Potential Lower leasehold price environment Lower drilling cost environment Company Maker Prospects Experienced team of Oil & Gas Entrepreneurs Successful Investment Bankers Finally I have followed JBCguy and betone for years and greatly respect his insight: Message 19669042 He stated: "A few years ago, one of the AOGI execs told me about UPL when it was $1 a share, so you can see that these guys know their stuff. I bought none of UPL down there and am still kicking myself. I have been tracking oil and gas for over 30 years, and AOGI at this price is one of the best situations I have ever seen. You could argue that it is a bit early on AOGI and you might be right, but the same thing could have been said about DBLE when it was around $4 a couple of years ago. That's what I thought about UPL at $1." If someone would add this the Value Investing contest for me, I would appreciate it. Thank you.

To: Grommit who wrote (18388)	1/10/2004 12:19:07 AM
From: Brinks	Respond to of 78486

Grommit regarding Matt Simmons --Andy Weissman (the great interview and energy expert) --posts on Yahoo as Pulsewriter. He posts extremely insightful posts. All one has to do is follow him. He even mentions Buffett. I believe he assisted the takeover of Mid-America. If interested one should order his newsletter which he has offered to supply one issue free. messages.yahoo.com search.messages.yahoo.com messages.yahoo.com messages.yahoo.com search.messages.yahoo.com messages.yahoo.com

To: Grommit who wrote (18388)	1/10/2004 12:57:35 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78486

re Energy - I have heard this argument that the energy crisis is looming since the Club or Rome book was published in the early 70's. I would not make any investment decisions based on the prediction that the world is running out of hydrocarbons and such - as you know we have been through several boom and bust with respect to energy prices during the last 30 years. Right now, we are in the boom of course but will it stay there? The energy consumption is not very elastic with respect to price short term but very elastic long term. So rather than a period of high oil prices coming for a long time, i would predict that the system adjusts and energy consumption is is reduced or new sources will be developed such that the system adjusts itself. I think this is a much more likely scenario than constantly increasing energy costs.

To: Grommit who wrote (18388)	1/12/2004 5:06:09 AM
From: Mark Adams	Respond to of 78486

I don't disagree with looking to energy for investment ideas. re the Party's Over- look to clean coal conversion technologies (GTL), hydrogen derived from nuke cogen, and tapping of hydrates to supplement future energy supplies. Why, we even have things like biodiesel (created from recycled fryer fat or various sorts of edible oils ala Palm oil) and companies developing commercial scale plants to 'digest' turkey waste etc into fuel. Message 19631711 news.nationalgeographic.com mpr.com anes.fiu.edu