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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (44517)	1/11/2004 2:36:44 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Mqurice, The remarkable point is not the number, but the mutations. NY Times online today gives a bit more detail and I have added comments here discuss.agonist.org I suspect the number with symptoms at Guangzhou People's Hospital #8 is quite a bit higher than the three acknowledge. Hong Kong has now decided to screen all pneumonia cases (prior to today they were just screening those who had come from Guangzhou in the preceding 10 days). Since the first three acknowledged cases are unlinked, it does sound like an explosion is building, but the civet culling may blunt some of the numbers. However, there will be a civet black market, and it seems that the "humanized" isolates could be in many reservoirs by now, since the virus is very promiscuous, and the fully mutated version has already been shown to grow well in macaques, domestic cats, and ferrets and Amoy Gardens isolates (also fully mutated) were found in rats, cats, and a dog so there clearly is the potential for quite a bit of popcorn.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (44517)	1/11/2004 7:25:36 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Mqurice, The popcorn may still be popping. A couple of Hong Kong papers are raising the possibility of a 4th SARS case in Shenzhen discuss.agonist.org