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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry Niman who wrote (44526)	1/11/2004 11:50:47 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74559

Henry, the graph of the disease seems to be parallel to that of 2003. It seems you were right and now it's just a question of whether the propagation is more than last year when there weren't the mutations available to enable the bug to hide in asymptomatic people so it could travel further and get more victims. The big influenza attacks costing millions of lives took a couple of winter seasons to get really steamed up [if I understand what happened correctly]. I suppose the bug needs to get the design and foundations in place, like any good engineering project, before it can really get construction going. Humans will react aggressively and I suppose even a major outbreak would be less catastrophic than those of previous influenza epidemics. Though in those, people lived more rural lives and cities were smaller and there weren't 747s and mass travel and mass transit to propagate the infections at high speed. We have N95 masks available now. We have better understanding of disease propagation and control. Nobody will dare sneeze at work, which is usually tolerated and sympathized with. AIDS was cut off at the pass when people realized just how serious it was. The infection growth was stopped in its tracks [other than in parts of Africa - Islamic parts have low infection rates due to sexual constraints]. Maybe sars won't get far. We're only half way into January so it'll be mid February or March before the popcorn gets popping in bulk. 2003 death graphs here: Message 19217756 Assuming a 10% death rate [or maybe, with luck, only 7% this year depending on definitions and mutations], then if we already have 4 cases, it'll be another week, or even two, before there are 10 cases, then another 10 days after that before the full effects of the sars infection sets in on those victims. So, I hereby predict the first 2004 sars death on 4 February 2004 and it'll be in China. Mqurice