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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: mishedlo who wrote (4788)1/11/2004 1:20:53 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu  Respond to of 110194
 
I do think they should lower rates as Germany is closer to deflation than inflation, but on the other hand they should impose more fiscal discipline in other countries.

As to UK I anticipate some tightening as there the central bank is much more wiser than the buffoons at the ECB.

Why Buffoons? because they let the EUR slip to around 0.85 in the first place. France is the rout of EZ problems.

EZ problems is that the EUR represent a basket of countries and administrations which differ substantially in their political goals expectations and social order.

You can not compare family from Greece or Portugal to have the same life style like say a family from Hamburg, Bremen or Rotterdam.

The differences are much more wider than let sat Texas and New York.



To: mishedlo who wrote (4788)1/11/2004 4:13:20 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
German budget deficit is expected to be around EUR 40 billion, or $51 billion at current FX rates.

Germany is about 1/4 of the US and as such German budget deficit is around $200+ versus $375 billion of the US.

France has a slightly bigger budget deficit and Italy much more. Those 3 countries are 2/3 of EZ

My point is that there is no hiding in either currency in the near future.

Something has to give and the question is what ? and who