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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (18414)	1/13/2004 12:22:21 AM
From: Steve168	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78732

Spekulatius and Paul, I agree that the market is entering the stage of "self propelling rally" and there will be an ugly retreat. While I don't claim I would be able to catch the top and get out in time, I don't believe in the theory that nobody can do that either. There are usually a lot of signs of the top - such as the shoeshine guys buying YHOO/QCOM and outperforming Warren Buffett in a month or two. There are also technical indicators that help to identify the top. My 200% return in 2003 (no margin) could be just a lucky year and it is possible that I may give the gain back, but I do try to stay cool and not being carried away. I am actually very cautious now and ready to short more stocks to hedge the gain. From talking to my individual investors friends, I found a lot of people still holding cash, hesitate to get back into the market. It is definitely not the early 2000 time that in every party you hear people bragging about stock gains. That's the main reason I am not pulling the trigger to get out yet. The last leg of the rally is usually the crazest, I am still holding onto ALVR now at 13 (I recommended multiple times here at 1.86, 3.5, 5), I know the risk is higher but my model tells me there is still a chance to get couple bucks out of it. ALVR is a dream stock for value investors - I bought it at 45% discount to cash value while debt-free, it now turned into a growth star, it may turn into a "next big thing" stock in a year. I am hoping it be acquired by CSCO or QCOM. Anyway my target is 30% annually and I have done that in past 5 years. Maybe my target is too high and it may cause a big problem in the future, but I am just not satisfied with 10% annual return.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (18414)	1/13/2004 3:40:11 AM
From: Madharry	Respond to of 78732

I have had a very strong january rally to date. After losing my shirt in telecom suppliers and then biotech my portfolio rebounded somewhat in 2003. However several of the biotech stocks are still at least 50% below where I purchased them in late 2000. At 12/31/03 about 33% of my portfolio had share prices below their 50day moving averages. Now only 2 out of 27 are under their 50 MDAs- one is off by .03 the other by .18. This infers that there is quite a bit of momentum to this market-OTOH in the period including November of '99 I experienced 35 consecutive days of portfolio value increases and the market did not top out til March of 2000. I dont think we will see any rate increases in 2004- there has been no job creation, in fact retail jobs have declined in December, and the decline in housing stock share prices probably has Greenspan running to the bathroom more frequently. I am looking to short some housing stocks as a hedge for the value of my house. any suggestions?