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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve168 who wrote (18415)	1/13/2004 1:00:52 AM
From: Spekulatius	Respond to of 78740

Steve, 200% is an awesome return but it's not easy to do. I doubt one can do 30%/year without taking a very high risk and over the course of the years a high risk sooner or later very likely will lead to a devastating decline. If the market were indeed to return 5%/year for the next 10 years, 8% return would be a very nice result and 30% would almost be a 6 sigma event. That fact is that if I want to get returns higher than the market,I must take it from somebody else. I try to to set my own expectation too high, i know that I am the most vulnerable when I am greedy or overconfident. Most people I know have a high percentage of their liquid assets in stocks already and very few have large hoard of cash laying around despite drawing from home equity over the last few years. Apparently this does not match your experience.

To: Steve168 who wrote (18415)	1/13/2004 1:29:12 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78740

re ALVR - I checked on ALVR fundamentals -during the last quarter, ALVR still lost money. It's amazing to me that the stock ran up as much as it did without becoming profitable. I do realize that the topline has improved. It's trading a 4x tangible book value, 50x forward earnings, currently is loosing money. Why do think it still has legs to go up? i can see that the chart looks good but somewhere there has to be a fundamental justification for the stock if I were ever even consider to look at it as an investment rather than a lottery ticket.