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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: el_gaviero who wrote (5016)	1/14/2004 8:50:16 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Terrific site, this is the chart they provided that everybody should tatoo on their foreheads. potashcorp.com The number they have is last year's year end grain stocks. The current figure is only 11% stocks/usage and about 110 million MT. But that was before this week's USDA downward revision, which should bring it below 100 million MT. Message 19680869 Now I think everybody here can see the problem? The big frontier of food production is Brazil, and primarily in the gigantic cerrado region. But the challenge of Brazil is that you don't just throw seed down and start growing. There is a half decade of soil fertility enhancement involved first. agbrazil.com agbrazil.com And for capital to be deployed into developing Brazilian cerrado and to allow for the return proper for the risk, we need to see sustained prices of $4 plus soybeans, probably closer to $5 or higher, given higher energy cost inputs. Plus a lot of infrastructure needs to be developed first. There is no way new cropland in the cerrado will fill the production gap Potash alludes to, over the next several years. potashcorp.com