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To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (44668)	1/14/2004 9:58:21 AM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 74559

So far the H5N1 is a bit of a mystery. In Vietnam it is primarily in the south (Mekong Delta) but in the human cases it is in the north (Hanoi). If it starts transmitting human to human, it will be a major problem. Unfortunately, as the number of birds with virus increases, the chance of jumps to pigs or humans increases as does the potential for recombination or reassortment.

To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (44668)	1/17/2004 10:48:39 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

>>and there's H5N1 somewhere joining the party.... << Yes, it seems to be rapidly evolving into a formula for disaster. discuss.agonist.org H5N1 popped up last year in Hong Kong right before SARS. It was in two people definitely and probably a third. Two of the three died. Then it showed up this year. First in S Korea, then in Vietnam and Japan and now H5N2 in Taiwan, in some countries for the first time and others first time since 1925. China says its H5N1 free (but virologists don't believe it). Countries are killing flocks trying to get control as the number of confirmed cases and deaths in Vietnam continue to rise. Next there is concern that people can be simultaneously get infected with both avian (H5N1) and human (H3N2) flu simultaneously, leading to a recombinant with the infectivity of H3N2 (Fujian flu) and the lethality of H5N1 (avian flu). To avoid this, vaccinations are encourage, especially for poultry farmers and those doing the culling. However, there is no H5 vaccine for humans, so they are urged to get H3N2 vaccinated. However, H3N2 vaccine is against Panama, which was just shown to be ineffective against Fujian. Sounds like a formula for disaster.

To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (44668)	1/19/2004 3:43:20 PM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 74559

Now it looks like OC43 (cold coronavirus) has joined the party discuss.agonist.org Dual infections with coronaviruses is NOT a good idea.

To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (44668)	1/22/2004 10:56:20 AM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 74559

Speaking of joining the party, it is beginning to look like H5N1 (avian flu) may trace back to Fujian Province! We've got a Panama vaccine against H3N2 that doesn't work well against Fujian H3N2, and now H5N1 may be floating around in Fujian Province also (and there is no human vaccine for H5N1). Sounds like the flu viruses already have quite a party going. discuss.agonist.org