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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: loantech who wrote (5097)1/14/2004 5:58:05 PM
From: yard_man  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
I'm not sure of the question, but regards to the ratio gold/dow -- we haven't come close to reverting to the mean there.

If I understand your question correctly, I think the answer is: we went for significant periods of time in 95-00 without reverting to the 200 dma for the daq -- or the DOW.

finance.yahoo.com^IXIC&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=m200&a=&c=

finance.yahoo.com^IXIC&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=m200&a=&c=

finance.yahoo.com^DJI&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=e200,m200&a=&c=



To: loantech who wrote (5097)1/14/2004 6:05:23 PM
From: yard_man  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
finance.yahoo.com^HUI&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=m200,m50&a=&c=

this chart would suggest getting out on quick deep crosses of the 50 dma -- but look how many data pts you have!! -- the poster who stated this like it was a lock was fooling himself.



To: loantech who wrote (5097)1/14/2004 6:09:49 PM
From: yard_man  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
now if you look carefully at this one

stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G

a better sell signal might be a zero crossover of the 1st derivative of the 50 dma -- or a better yet a given approach to zero -- with regards to that -- now worries here, mate <vbg>

this might have taken you out on 2 false signals early on, but if you bought the turn in this, with a stop -- you would not have missed too much upside -- just a little.

Heck, I think I am going to start following this ...



To: loantech who wrote (5097)1/14/2004 6:21:25 PM
From: yard_man  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 
35 day might be better

stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[df][pb35!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G

the zero cross of the derivative of the 50 seems almost simultaneous -- the 35 day on the other hand ...

current decline is a lot like what happened at HUI == 150

I am going to start tracking the 1st deriv of the 35 and 40 day ma's