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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (13076)	1/18/2004 7:31:38 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95639

Now that the new year has come and gone, we can revisit an older post. Message 19636814 That post shows the positive NASDAQ price performance over a 2 to 4 week period from December to January going back to the 95/96 year end/beginning period. Now that we have completed the 03/04 transition, the table can be updated with this information and compared to the prior years. - NASDAQ - YR LOW HIGH NBR PCT END/BEG PRICE PRICE DIFF DIFF 03/04 1902 2141 239 13 02/03 1327 1467 140 11 01/02 1919 2099 180 9 00/01 2251 2892 641 28 99/00 3786 4303 517 14 98/99 2134 2507 373 17 97/98 1486 1603 117 8 96/97 1277 1401 124 10 95/96 1024 1045 21 2 As the table shows, this yearly transition is very similar to the others going back to the 95/96 year - no one lost money going long on the NASDAQ index over the last 9 yearly transitions. Even in the most recent years when the NASDAQ was on a downward "plunge", the positive yearly transition held true. As a matter of fact, the best yearly transition was going from 00/01 when the gain was 28 percent, right in the "middle" of the plunge from its high achieved in March of 2000. This year, we may have more upside to go. Even though the gain over the past 4 weeks has been very good, the bulk of the earnings reports are still to be released during the next 2 weeks. It is hard to imagine the NASDAQ having a pullback over this period in this economic environment with the expected good news that should be forthcoming. Don